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Randomized experiments are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. However, out of the set of possible randomized assignments, some may be likely to produce poor effect estimates and misleading conclusions. Restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Maggie Wang , René F. Kizilcec , Michael Baiocchi

Motivated by conflicting conclusions regarding hydrocortisone's treatment effect on ICU patients with vasopressor-dependent septic shock, we developed a novel instrumental variable (IV) estimator to assess the average treatment effect (ATE)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Mixed membership models are an extension of finite mixture models, where each observation can partially belong to more than one mixture component. A probabilistic framework for mixed membership models of high-dimensional continuous data is…

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

Unobserved confounding is the main obstacle to causal effect estimation from observational data. Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for causal effect estimation when there exist latent confounders. With the standard IV method,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Thuc duy Le , Jixue Liu

Multivariable Mendelian randomization estimates the causal effect of multiple exposures on an outcome, typically using summary statistics of genetic variant associations. However, exposures of interest in Mendelian randomization…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Jiazheng Zhu , Stephen Burgess , Andrew J. Grant

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska

This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan

We propose a statistical multiscale mapping approach to identify microscopic and molecular heterogeneity across a tumor microenvironment using multiparametric MR (mp-MR). Twenty-nine patients underwent pre-surgical mp-MR followed by…

Medical Physics · Physics 2019-07-26 Jason G Parker , PhD , Emily E Diller , MS , Sha Cao , PhD , Jeremy T Nelson , PhD , Kristen Yeom , MD , Chang Ho , MD , Robert Lober , MD , PhD

Although treatment effects can be estimated from observed outcome distributions obtained from proper randomization in clinical trials, covariate adjustment is recommended to increase precision. For important treatment effects, such as odds…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is often challenging due to endogeneity. This paper provides new identification results for causal effects of discrete, ordered and continuous treatments using multiple binary…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-21 Nadja van 't Hoff

This paper provides partial identification results for the marginal treatment effect ($MTE$) when the binary treatment variable is potentially misreported and the instrumental variable is discrete. Identification results are derived under…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-04 Santiago Acerenza

Meta-analysis is a statistical method used in evidence synthesis for combining, analyzing and summarizing studies that have the same target endpoint and aims to derive a pooled quantitative estimate using fixed and random effects models or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-25 Ivette Raices Cruz , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Johan Lindström , Ullrika Sahlin

Inverse probability (IP) weighting of marginal structural models (MSMs) can provide consistent estimators of time-varying treatment effects under correct model specifications and identifiability assumptions, even in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Nodoka Seya , Masataka Taguri , Takeo Ishii

Robust Mixture Prior (RMP) is a popular Bayesian dynamic borrowing method, which combines an informative historical distribution with a less informative component (referred as robustification component) in a mixture prior to enhance the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Marco Ratta , Gaelle Saint-Hilary , Mauro Gasparini , Pavel Mozgunov

In causal inference, estimating the average treatment effect is a central objective, and in the context of competing risks data, this effect can be quantified by the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) difference. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Yifei Tian , Ying Wu

This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-22 Takuya Ura

Missing outcome data is one of the principal threats to the validity of treatment effect estimates from randomized trials. The outcome distributions of participants with missing and observed data are often different, which increases the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-06 Iván Díaz , Mark J. van der Laan