Related papers: Macroeconomic forecasting through news, emotions a…
We show how emotions extracted from macroeconomic news can be used to explain and forecast future behaviour of sovereign bond yield spreads in Italy and Spain. We use a big, open-source, database known as Global Database of Events, Language…
We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting…
This study leverages narrative from global newspapers to construct theme-based knowledge graphs about world events, demonstrating that features extracted from such graphs improve forecasts of industrial production in three large economies…
The goal of this paper is to evaluate the informational content of sentiment extracted from news articles about the state of the economy. We propose a fine-grained aspect-based sentiment analysis that has two main characteristics: 1) we…
Predicting emotions elicited by news headlines can be challenging as the task is largely influenced by the varying nature of people's interpretations and backgrounds. Previous works have explored classifying discrete emotions directly from…
The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., raw material prices, financing, supply chain utilization and demand quotas. In order to adapt to the economic environment, decision-makers across the public and private…
This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project's worldwide news feed using…
This study looks for signals of economic awareness on online social media and tests their significance in economic predictions. The study analyses, over a period of two years, the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate daily crude…
In the following paper, we use a topic modeling algorithm and sentiment scoring methods to construct a novel metric that serves as a leading indicator in recession prediction models. We hypothesize that the inclusion of such a sentiment…
The paper proposes a method of financial time series forecasting taking into account the semantics of news. For the semantic analysis of financial news the sampling of negative and positive words in economic sense was formed based on…
In today's media landscape, where news outlets play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion, it is imperative to address the issue of sentiment manipulation within news text. News writers often inject their own biases and emotional…
Following the financial crisis of the late 2000s, policy makers have shown considerable interest in monitoring financial stability. Several central banks now publish indices of financial stress, which are essentially based upon market…
We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for…
This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets…
Macroeconomic variables are known to significantly impact equity markets, but their predictive power for price fluctuations has been underexplored due to challenges such as infrequency and variability in timing of announcements, changing…
This paper focuses on sentiment mining and sentiment correlation analysis of web events. Although neural network models have contributed a lot to mining text information, little attention is paid to analysis of the inter-sentiment…
Financial market forecasting is one of the most attractive practical applications of sentiment analysis. In this paper, we investigate the potential of using sentiment \emph{attitudes} (positive vs negative) and also sentiment…
News media coverage of monetary policy is not a passive transcript of central-bank communication: it filters announcements, macroeconomic news, and editorial choices into narratives that move expectations and policy decisions. We embed…
This study uses sentiment analysis and the Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) to characterise news content in social media and examine its association with user engagement. We employ Natural Language Processing to quantify the moral and…
Modern technological era has reshaped traditional lifestyle in several domains. The medium of publishing news and events has become faster with the advancement of Information Technology. IT has also been flooded with immense amounts of…