Related papers: Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Th…
Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local…
This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated…
Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…
The Cartier-Perrin theorem, which was published in 1995 and is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis, permits, for the first time perhaps, a clear-cut mathematical definition of the volatility of a financial asset. It yields as…
We make several improvements to the mean-variance framework for optimal pre-trade algorithmic execution, by working with volume measures and generic price dynamics. Volume measures are the continuum analogies for discrete volume profiles…
We study the Second Price Matching problem, introduced by Azar, Birnbaum, Karlin, and Nguyen in 2009. In this problem, a bipartite graph (bidders and goods) is given, and the profit of a matching is the number of matches containing a second…
We introduce a new tool for predicting the evolution of an option for the cases where at some specific time, there is a high-degree of uncertainty for identifying its price. We work over the special case where we can predict the evolution…
We develop two alternate approaches to arbitrage-free, market-complete, option pricing. The first approach requires no riskless asset. We develop the general framework for this approach and illustrate it with two specific examples. The…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…
We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own…
A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow…
We endorse the idea, suggested in recent literature, that BitCoin prices are influenced by sentiment and confidence about the underlying technology; as a consequence, an excitement about the BitCoin system may propagate to BitCoin prices…
Proceeding from the concept of rational expectations, a new dynamic model of supply and demand in a single market with one supplier, one buyer, and one kind of commodity is developed. Unlike the cob-web dynamic theories with adaptive…
We introduce a novel entropy-related function, \textit{non-repeatability}, designed to capture dynamical behaviors in complex systems. Its normalized form, \textit{mutability}, has been previously applied in statistical physics as a…
We consider a three-level meta-analysis of standardized mean differences. The standard method of estimation uses inverse-variance weights and REML/PL estimation of variance components for the random effects. We introduce new moment-based…
Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…
Motivated by a bidimensional discrete-time risk model in insurance, we study the second-order asymptotics for two kinds of tail probabilities of the stochastic discounted value of aggregate net losses including two business lines. These are…
In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…
Using spectral decomposition techniques and singular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method to approximate the prices of a variety of options in a fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility setting. Four examples are provided in…
Economic and financial theories and practice essentially deal with uncertain future. Humans encounter uncertainty in different kinds of activity, from sensory-motor control to dynamics in financial markets, what has been subject of…