Related papers: Estimation of Switched Markov Polynomial NARX mode…
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics exhibit a variety of complex phenomena far from equilibrium. It inherits challenges of equilibrium, including accurately describing the joint distribution of a large number of configurations, and also…
Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a…
Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…
In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil…
In this paper we derive the consistency of the penalized likelihood method for the number state of the hidden Markov chain in autoregressive models with Markov regimen. Using a SAEM type algorithm to estimate the models parameters. We test…
Estimation of Markov Random Field and covariance models from high-dimensional data represents a canonical problem that has received a lot of attention in the literature. A key assumption, widely employed, is that of {\em sparsity} of the…
This project introduces the GNAR-HARX model, which combines Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) structure with Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) dynamics and exogenous predictors such as implied volatility. The model is designed for…
We propose a methodology to analyze data arising from a curve that, over its domain, switches among J states. We consider a sequence of response variables, where each response y depends on a covariate x according to an unobserved state z.…
This paper investigates a change-point estimation problem in the context of high-dimensional Markov Random Field models. Change-points represent a key feature in many dynamically evolving network structures. The change-point estimate is…
In this paper, the parameter estimation problem for a multi-timescale adaptive threshold (MAT) neuronal model is investigated. By manipulating the system dynamics, which comprise of a non-resetting leaky integrator coupled with an adaptive…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
This paper proposes a new methodological framework for estimating inferential models with latent variables. It also introduces a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
We introduce a new procedure to neuralize unsupervised Hidden Markov Models in the continuous case. This provides higher flexibility to solve problems with underlying latent variables. This approach is evaluated on both synthetic and real…
We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…
This article introduces the Tensor Network B-spline model for the regularized identification of nonlinear systems using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) approach. Tensor network theory is used to alleviate the curse of…
Traditional partial differential equations with constant coefficients often struggle to capture abrupt changes in real-world phenomena, leading to the development of variable coefficient PDEs and Markovian switching models. Recently,…
In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…