Related papers: A General Bayesian Model for Heteroskedastic Data …
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for multiscale problems with the availability of dynamic observational data. Our method selects important degrees of freedom probabilistically in a Generalized multiscale finite element method…
Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several…
There has been a recent surge in research on causal panel data models, leading to many new estimators for average causal effects. However, researchers have paid less attention to quantifying the precision of these estimators. This paper…
In Bayesian meta-analysis, the specification of prior probabilities for the between-study heterogeneity is commonly required, and is of particular benefit in situations where only few studies are included. Among the considerations in the…
Assessing variability according to distinct factors in data is a fundamental technique of statistics. The method commonly regarded to as analysis of variance (ANOVA) is, however, typically confined to the case where all levels of a factor…
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in…
Financial studies require volatility based models which provides useful insights on risks related to investments. Stochastic volatility models are one of the most popular approaches to model volatility in such studies. The asset returns…
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…
Modeling correlation (and covariance) matrices can be challenging due to the positive-definiteness constraint and potential high-dimensionality. Our approach is to decompose the covariance matrix into the correlation and variance matrices…
Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…
This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…
This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…
In this work we introduce a class of dynamic models for time series taking values on the unit interval. The proposed model follows a generalized linear model approach where the random component, conditioned on the past information, follows…
A meta-model of the input-output data of a computationally expensive simulation is often employed for prediction, optimization, or sensitivity analysis purposes. Fitting is enabled by a designed experiment, and for computationally expensive…
Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…
Heteroskedastic errors can lead to inaccurate statistical conclusions if they are not properly handled. We introduce a test for heteroskedasticity for the nonparametric regression model with multiple covariates. It is based on a suitable…