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Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a principled approach to modeling predictive uncertainties in deep learning, which are important in safety-critical applications. Since exact Bayesian inference over the weights in a BNN is intractable,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-02 Tim Z. Xiao , Weiyang Liu , Robert Bamler

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

We present and implement two algorithms for analytic asymptotic evaluation of the marginal likelihood of data given a Bayesian network with hidden nodes. As shown by previous work, this evaluation is particularly hard for latent Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Dmitry Rusakov , Dan Geiger

In this thesis, we disentangle the generalized Gauss-Newton and approximate inference for Bayesian deep learning. The generalized Gauss-Newton method is an optimization method that is used in several popular Bayesian deep learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-24 Alexander Immer

We introduce a new method for learning Bayesian neural networks, treating them as a stack of multivariate Bayesian linear regression models. The main idea is to infer the layerwise posterior exactly if we know the target outputs of each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-20 Richard Kurle , Alexej Klushyn , Ralf Herbrich

We investigate the use of normalizing flow (NF) models as flexible priors in Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for iterative Bayesian calibration. Trained on posteriors from previous analyses, these models can…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-04-02 Hendrik Roch , Chun Shen

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-26 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

We prove the weak consistency of the posterior distribution and that of the Bayes estimator for a two-phase piecewise linear regression mdoel where the break-point is unknown. The non-differentiability of the likelihood of the model with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-22 Tristan Launay , Anne Philippe , Sophie Lamarche

Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Michael Minyi Zhang , Sinead A. Williamson , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Popular deterministic approximations of posterior distributions from, e.g. the Laplace method, variational Bayes and expectation-propagation, generally rely on symmetric approximating families, often taken to be Gaussian. This choice…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Francesco Pozza , Daniele Durante , Botond Szabo

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-09 Marco F. Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-06-24 Martin D. Weinberg

Deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks, have long been applied to image and multi-media tasks, particularly those with structured data. More recently, there has been more attention to unstructured data that can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Rohitash Chandra , Ayush Bhagat , Manavendra Maharana , Pavel N. Krivitsky

Laplace approximation (LA) and its linearized variant (LLA) enable effortless adaptation of pretrained deep neural networks to Bayesian neural networks. The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is typically introduced to improve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Zhijie Deng , Feng Zhou , Jun Zhu

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick