Related papers: A model-based approach to assess epidemic risk
Nowadays, epidemic models provide an appropriate tool for describing the propagation of biological viruses in human or animal populations, or rumours and other kinds of information in social networks and malware in both computer and ad hoc…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Network models represent a useful tool to describe the complex set of financial relationships among heterogeneous firms in the system. In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric model for temporal multilayer causal networks with both…
Recent Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need of efficient epidemic outbreak management. We study the optimal control problem of minimizing the fraction of infected population by applying vaccination and treatment control strategies,…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
Within epidemiological modeling, the majority of analyses assume a single epidemic process for generating ground-truth data. However, this assumed data generation process can be unrealistic, since data sources for epidemics are often…
Network science has increasingly become central to the field of epidemiology and our ability to respond to infectious disease threats. However, many networks derived from modern datasets are not just large, but dense, with a high ratio of…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected countries across the world, demanding drastic public health policies to mitigate the spread of infection, leading to economic crisis as a collateral damage. In this work, we investigated the impact of…
This paper investigates the identifiability of a spatial mathematical model of the spread of fast-moving epidemics based on the law of acting masses and diffusion processes. The research algorithm is based on global methods of Sobol…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…
In this chapter, we consider the problem of designing protection strategies to contain spreading processes in complex cyber-physical networks. We illustrate our ideas using a family of bio-motivated spreading models originally proposed in…
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…