Related papers: A model-based approach to assess epidemic risk
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…
The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
We calculate epidemic thresholds and investigate the dynamics of a disease in a networked metapopulation model. To study the specific role of mobility levels and network geometry, we utilize the SIR-Network model and consider a range of…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
We propose a novel framework to study viral spreading processes in metapopulation models. Large subpopulations (i.e., cities) are connected via metalinks (i.e., roads) according to a metagraph structure (i.e., the traffic infrastructure).…
We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
The structure of complex networks has long been understood to play a role in transmission and spreading phenomena on a graph. This behavior is difficult to model analytically and is most often modeled numerically. Such networks form an…
In a prior study, a novel deterministic compartmental model known as the SEIHRK model was introduced, shedding light on the pivotal role of test kits as an intervention strategy for mitigating epidemics. Particularly in heterogeneous…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…
Contagious diseases can spread quickly in human populations, either through airborne transmission or if some other spreading vectors are abundantly accessible. They can be particularly devastating if the impact on individuals' health has…
Infection dynamics have been studied extensively on complex networks, yielding insight into the effects of heterogeneity in contact patterns on disease spread. Somewhat separately, metapopulations have provided a paradigm for modeling…