Related papers: A first econometric analysis of the CRIX family
It is common for long financial time series to exhibit gradual change in the unconditional volatility. We propose a new model that captures this type of nonstationarity in a parsimonious way. The model augments the volatility equation of a…
This dissertation investigates the ability of the Ising model to replicate statistical characteristics, or stylized facts, commonly observed in financial assets. The study specifically examines in the S&P500 index the following features:…
We present a study on portfolio investments in financial applications. We describe a general modeling and simulation framework and study the impact on the use of different metrics to measure the correlation among assets. In particular,…
The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…
Financial markets typically exhibit dynamically complex properties as they undergo continuous interactions with economic and environmental factors. The Efficient Market Hypothesis indicates a rich difference in the structural complexity of…
Even in the simple one-factor credit portfolio model that underlies the Basel II regulatory capital rules coming into force in 2007, the exact contributions to credit value-at-risk can only be calculated with Monte-Carlo simulation or with…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…
We propose a new sequential procedure to detect change in the parameters of a process $ X= (X_t)_{t\in \Z}$ belonging to a large class of causal models (such as AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH processes). The…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
In healthcare, clinical risks are crucial for treatment decisions, yet the analysis of their associations is often overlooked. This gap is particularly significant when balancing risks that are weighed against each other, as in the case of…
With the use of empirical data, this paper focuses on solving financial and investment issues involving extremal dependence of ten pairwise combinations of the five BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) stock markets. Daily…
This paper proposes a hybrid credit risk model, in closed form, to price vulnerable options with stochastic volatility. The distinctive features of the model are threefold. First, both the underlying and the option issuer's assets follow…
In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian…
An empirical analysis of interest rates in money and capital markets is performed. We investigate a set of 34 different weekly interest rate time series during a time period of 16 years between 1982 and 1997. Our study is focused on the…
The log returns of financial time series are usually modeled by means of the stationary GARCH(1,1) stochastic process or its generalizations which can not properly describe the nonstationary deterministic components of the original series.…
In this paper, we study time-varying graphical models based on data measured over a temporal grid. Such models are motivated by the needs to describe and understand evolving interacting relationships among a set of random variables in many…
We solved a stylized fact on a long memory process of volatility cluster phenomena by using Minkowski metric for GARCH(1,1) under assumption that price and time can not be separated. We provide a Yang-Mills equation in financial market and…
The article's aim is to provide a solution to the equity premium puzzle with a derived model. The derived model which depends on Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model gives a solution to the puzzle with the values of coefficient of…
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR,…