Related papers: A first econometric analysis of the CRIX family
The thesis is composed of three parts. Part I introduces the mathematical and statistical tools that are relevant for the study of dependences, as well as statistical tests of Goodness-of-fit for empirical probability distributions. I…
We propose a panel ARMA-GARCH model to capture the dynamics of large panel data with $N$ individuals over $T$ time periods. For this model, we provide a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the ARMA parameters and GARCH parameters…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…
The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear…
In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative)…
Stock market indices are volatile by nature, and sudden shocks are known to affect volatility patterns. The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models neglect structural breaks triggered by…
We develop misspecification tests for building additive time-varying (ATV-)GARCH models. In the model, the volatility equation of the GARCH model is augmented by a deterministic time-varying intercept modeled as a linear combination of…
We relax the strong rationality assumption for the agents in the paradigmatic Kyle model of price formation, thereby reconciling the framework of asymmetrically informed traders with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, where agents use…
We construct a continuous time model for price-mediated contagion precipitated by a common exogenous stress to the banking book of all firms in the financial system. In this setting, firms are constrained so as to satisfy a risk-weight…
We introduce a new volatility model for option pricing that combines Markov switching with the Realized GARCH framework. This leads to a novel pricing kernel with a state-dependent variance risk premium and a pricing formula for European…
We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…
We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…
By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
In the independent component model, the multivariate data is assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components, and in independent component analysis (ICA) the aim is to estimate these latent components. In this paper we…
We establish innovative liquidity premium measures, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility to model assets with extreme liquidity, represented by a portfolio of selected crypto assets, and upon which we develop a set of…
In this paper, we test a partially segmented ICAPM for two developed markets, two emerging markets and World market, using an asymmetric extension of the multivariate GARCH process of De Santis and Gerard (1997,1998). We find that this…
Price range contains important information about the asset volatility, and has long been considered an important indicator for it. In this paper, we propose to jointly model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and introduce an…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…