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The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-11 Alberto Bassanoni , Omer Hamdi

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Clément Dombry , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Miles E. Lopes , Junwen Yao

We study subexponential tail asymptotics for the distribution of the maximum $M_t:=\sup_{u\in[0,t]}X_u$ of a process $X_t$ with negative drift for the entire range of $t>0$. We consider compound renewal processes with linear drift and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Dmitry Korshunov

The present work investigates two properties of level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process $X(t)$ with autocorrelation function $R_X(\tau)$. We show firstly that if $R_X(\tau)$ admits finite second and fourth derivatives at the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-01 Van Minh Nguyen

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Muyang Shi , Likun Zhang , Mark D. Risser , Benjamin A. Shaby

In the study of extremes, the presence of asymptotic independence signifies that extreme events across multiple variables are probably less likely to occur together. Although well-understood in a bivariate context, the concept remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-26 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

We compute the tail asymptotics of the product of a beta random variable and a generalized gamma random variable which are independent and have general parameters. A special case of these asymptotics were proved and used in a recent work of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Jim Pitman , Miklos Z. Racz

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Milad Bakhshizadeh

For $X_i(t), i=1,\ldots, n, t\in [0,T]$ centered Gaussian processes, the chi-square process $\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_i^2(t)$ appears naturally as limiting processes in various statistical models. In this paper, we are concerned with the exact tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Long Bai

The extremal dependence structure of a regularly varying $d$-dimensional random vector can be described by its angular measure. The standard nonparametric estimator of this measure is the empirical measure of the observed angles of the $k$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Holger Drees

In this paper, we consider the extreme behavior of a Gaussian random field $f(t)$ living on a compact set $T$. In particular, we are interested in tail events associated with the integral $\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt$. We construct a (non-Gaussian)…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Jingchen Liu , Gongjun Xu

This paper addresses heavy-tailed large deviation estimates for the distribution tail of functionals of a class of spectrally one-sided L\'evy process. Our contribution is to show that these estimates remain valid in a near-critical regime.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Bart Kamphorst , Bert Zwart

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Anja Janssen , Holger Drees

We investigate the extremal process of four-dimensional membrane models as the size of the lattice $N$ tends to infinity. We prove the cluster-like geometry of the extreme points and the existence as well as the uniqueness of the extremal…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Hao Ge , Xinyi Li , Jiaxi Zhao

The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Anja Janßen , Johan Segers

Let $X_t^\sharp$ be a multivariate process of the form $X_t =Y_t - Z_t$, $X_0=x$, killed at some terminal time $T$, where $Y_t$ is a Markov process having only jumps of the length smaller than $\delta$, and $Z_t$ is a compound Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-22 Victoria Knopova , Zbigniew Palmowski

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-30 Youngsoo Baek , Samuel I. Berchuck , Sayan Mukherjee

Under K.-T. Sturm's formulation, we obtain a Gaussian upper bound for tail probability of mean value of independent, identically distributed random variables with values in $\mathbb{R}$-trees and Hadamard manifolds.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-04 Kei Funano