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Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-18 Xinran Li , Peng Ding

We propose a method for summarizing multiple solutions to SEIR-type compartmental models on a functional space by computing a constrained power Fr\'echet mean with functional registration to obtain consensus epidemic trajectories with…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yui Tomo , Shu Tamano , Daisuke Yoneoka

One way to study the spread of disease is through mathematical models. The most successful models compartmentalize the host population according to their infectious stage, e.g., susceptible (S), infected (I), exposed (E), and recovered (R).…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-25 Enrique C. Gabrick , Ervin K. Lenzi , Antonio M. Batista

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 J. Verdasca , M. M. Telo da Gama , A. Nunes , N. R. Bernardino , J. M. Pacheco , M. C. Gomes

It is shown that two conjectures put forward in the recent article Iksanov and Kostohryz (2025) are true. Namely, we prove a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) and a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for a random Dirichlet series…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Congzao Dong , Alexander Iksanov

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-01 Saumyak Mukherjee , Sayantan Mondal , Biman Bagchi

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in statistics. It states that the standardized sample mean of a sequence of $n$ mutually independent and identically distributed random variables with finite first and…

We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Giorgio Martalò , Giuseppe Toscani , Mattia Zanella

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-10 P. Hernández , C. Pena , A. Ramos , J. J. Gómez-Cadenas

We consider Betti numbers of the excursion of a smooth Euclidean Gaussian field restricted to a rectangular window, in the asymptotics where the window grows to R^d . With motivations coming from Topological Data Analysis, we derive a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Christian Hirsch , Raphaël Lachièze-Rey

Over the past several decades there has been a proliferation of epidemiological models with ordinary derivatives replaced by fractional derivatives in an an-hoc manner. These models may be mathematically interesting but their relevance is…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-03-31 C. N. Angstmann , B. I. Henry , A. V. McGann

We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-05 Fernando P. Faria , Ronald Dickman

We prove a quenched functional central limit theorem (quenched FCLT) for the sums of a random field (r.f.) along a Z d-random walk in different frameworks: probabilistic (when the r.f. is i.i.d. or a moving average of i.i.d. random…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-27 Jean-Pierre Conze

Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-15 Ian Waudby-Smith , David Arbour , Ritwik Sinha , Edward H. Kennedy , Aaditya Ramdas

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-20 Jonathan A. Chávez Casillas

Given a functional central limit (fCLT) for an estimator and a parameter transformation, we construct random processes, called functional delta residuals, which asymptotically have the same covariance structure as the limit process of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-19 Fabian J. E. Telschow , Samuel Davenport , Armin Schwartzman

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed by individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 David R. de Souza , Tânia Tomé

We explore the application of probability generating functions (PGFs) to invasive processes, focusing on infectious disease introduced into large populations. Our goal is to acquaint the reader with applications of PGFs, moreso than to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-03 Joel C. Miller

We establish finite-dimensional central limit theorems for local, additive, interaction functions of temporally evolving point processes. The dynamics are those of a spatial Poisson process on the flat torus with points subject to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Efe Onaran , Omer Bobrowski , Robert J. Adler

The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes. The central limit theorem and functional central limit theorem are obtained for martingale like random variables under…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-11 Li-Xin Zhang