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We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-01 Samir Bhatt , Neil Ferguson , Seth Flaxman , Axel Gandy , Swapnil Mishra , James A. Scott

Currently, Brazil has one of the fastest increasing COVID-19 epidemics in the world, that has caused at least 94 thousand confirmed deaths until now. The city of Sao Paulo is particularly vulnerable because it is the most populous in the…

In March of this year, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic and it continues to threaten public health. This global health crisis imposes limitations on daily movements, which have deteriorated every sector in our society. Understanding public…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-01-27 Minha Lee , Jun Zhao , Qianqian Sun , Yixuan Pan , Weiyi Zhou , Chenfeng Xiong , Lei Zhang

Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-06 Yi Liang , James Unwin

Understanding how efforts to limit exposure to COVID-19 have altered electricity demand provides insights not only into how dramatic restrictions shape electricity demand but also about future electricity use in a post-COVID-19 world. We…

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on stock market volatility (SMV) in Pakistan by controlling the effect of exchange rate, interest rate and government/central bank interventions to combat the pandemic. We used the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-05 Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed , Kaneez Fatima

To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers and public authorities have announced various non-pharmaceutical policies. Analyzing the causal impact of these policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is important for future…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jing Ma , Yushun Dong , Zheng Huang , Daniel Mietchen , Jundong Li

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted daily activity rhythms and life routines. Understanding the dynamics of these impacts on different groups of people is essential for creating environments where people's lives and well-being…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Nguyen Luong , Ian Barnett , Talayeh Aledavood

The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-13 Patrizio Vanella , Ugofilippo Basellini , Berit Lange

Actually, after one year it is recognized that the evolution of COVID-19 is different in each country or region around the world. In this paper, we do a revision to the date about COVID-19 evolution in Mexico, we explain where the main…

Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-20 Giacomo De Nicola , Göran Kauermann

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-10 Evangelos Matsinos

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses'…

General Economics · Economics 2020-07-08 Carlo Fezzi , Valeria Fanghella

At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-22 Chung-Han Hsieh

As infected and vaccinated population increases, some countries decided not to impose non-pharmaceutical intervention measures anymore and to coexist with COVID-19. However, we do not have a comprehensive understanding of its consequence ,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-19 Chen Zhao , Jialu Zhang , Xiaoyue Hou , Chi Ho Yeung , An Zeng

With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now become a pandemic, inflicting millions of people and causing tens of thousands of deaths. To better understand the dynamics of COVID-19, we present a comprehensive COVID-19 tracking and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Zhou Yang , Jiwei Xu , Zhenhe Pan , Fang Jin

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-18 Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman

To prevent the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries around the world went into lockdown and imposed unprecedented containment measures. These restrictions progressively produced changes to social behavior and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread devastation throughout the world. In addition to the health and economical impacts, there is an enormous emotional toll associated with the constant stress of daily life with the numerous…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Jolin Shaynn-Ly Kwan , Kwan Hui Lim