Related papers: Portfolio Optimization on Multivariate Regime Swit…
In order to model risk aversion in reinforcement learning, an emerging line of research adapts familiar algorithms to optimize coherent risk functionals, a class that includes conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Because optimizing the…
In this paper, we investigate mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problems with jumps in a regime-switching financial model. The novelty of our approach lies in allowing not only the market parameters -- such as the interest rate,…
We introduce a universal framework for mean-covariance robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization. We model uncertainty in terms of the Gelbrich distance on the mean-covariance space, along with prior structural information about…
We develop two new estimators for a general class of stationary GARCH models with possibly heavy tailed asymmetrically distributed errors, covering processes with symmetric and asymmetric feedback like GARCH, Asymmetric GARCH, VGARCH and…
A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal…
Risk forecasts drive trading constraints and capital allocation, yet losses are nonstationary and regime-dependent. This paper studies sequential one-sided VaR control via conformal calibration. I propose regime-weighted conformal risk…
We investigate portfolio optimization in financial markets from a trading and risk management perspective. We term this task Risk-Aware Trading Portfolio Optimization (RATPO), formulate the corresponding optimization problem, and propose an…
We propose an alternative approach towards cost mitigation in volatility-managed portfolios based on smoothing the predictive density of an otherwise standard stochastic volatility model. Specifically, we develop a novel variational Bayes…
The majority of standard approaches to financial portfolio optimization (PO) are based on the mean-variance (MV) framework. Given a risk aversion coefficient, the MV procedure yields a single portfolio that represents the optimal trade-off…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure…
Recently there is a large amount of work devoted to the study of Markov chain stochastic gradient methods (MC-SGMs) which mainly focus on their convergence analysis for solving minimization problems. In this paper, we provide a…
This paper investigates methods for estimating the optimal stochastic control policy for a Markov Decision Process with unknown transition dynamics and an unknown reward function. This form of model-free reinforcement learning comprises…
This paper presents a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework for dynamic portfolio optimization under market uncertainty and risk. The proposed model integrates a Sharpe ratio-based reward function with direct risk control mechanisms,…
When it comes to stock returns, any form of predictability can bolster risk-adjusted profitability. We develop a collaborative machine learning algorithm that optimizes portfolio weights so that the resulting synthetic security is maximally…
Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…
Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…
This paper studies Markov-switching (MS) models with time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) under various specifications of the transition probability matrix. Especially, we extend the two-regime common-variance setting of the…
A Markov switching asymmetric GARCH model which imposes more leverage effect of the negative shocks is considered. The asymptotic behavior of the second moment is investigated and an upper bound for it is calculated. A bayesian strategy…
As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…