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In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-06 Rui Luo , Weinan Zhang , Xiaojun Xu , Jun Wang

We consider the problem of a subnetwork of observed nodes embedded into a larger bulk of unknown (i.e. hidden) nodes, where the aim is to infer these hidden states given information about the subnetwork dynamics. The biochemical networks…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-06-23 Barbara Bravi , Peter Sollich

We use generating functionals to derive a dynamic mean-field description for generalised Lotka-Volterra systems with higher-order quenched random interactions. We use the resulting single effective species process to determine the stability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-18 Laura Sidhom , Tobias Galla

In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Tomás Caraballo , Renato Colucci , Javier López-de-la-Cruz , Alain Rapaport

Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-10-21 Mladen Kolar , Le Song , Amr Ahmed , Eric P. Xing

In this paper, we introduce a general framework to quantify dissimilarities between generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamical processes, ranging from classical predator-prey systems to multispecies communities interacting on networks. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-18 Nicolás A. Márquez , Maryam Chaib De Mares , Alejandro P. Riascos

A new stochastic control problem of population dynamics under partial observation is formulated and analyzed both mathematically and numerically, with an emphasis on environmental and ecological problems. The decision-maker can only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-13 Hidekazu Yoshioka , Yuta Yaegashi , Motoh Tsujimura

Motivated by fractional derivative models in viscoelasticity, a class of semilinear stochastic Volterra integro-differential equations, and their deterministic counterparts, are considered. A generalized exponential Euler method, named here…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-17 Mihály Kovács , Stig Larsson , Fardin Saedpanah

Discrete time spatial time series data arise routinely in meteorological and environmental studies. Inference and prediction associated with them are mostly carried out using any of the several variants of the linear state space model that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-25 Suman Guha , Sourabh Bhattacharya

A model of population genetics of the Lotka-Volterra type with mutations on a statistical manifold is introduced. Mutations in the model are described by diffusion on a statistical manifold with a generator in the form of a Laplace-Beltrami…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-01 S. V. Kozyrev

We uncover the gradient structure to investigate the convergence of solutions in nonlocal nonlinear dynamical systems. Mainly but not exclusively, we use the Lojasiewicz inequality to prove convergence results in various spaces with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Won Eui Hong

Our recent work lays out a general framework for inferring information about the parameters and associated dynamics of a differential equation model from a discrete set of data points collected from the system being modeled. Rigorous…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Xiaoyu Duan , Jonathan E Rubin , David Swigon

Literature is full of inference techniques developed to estimate the parameters of stochastic dynamical systems driven by the well-known Brownian noise. Such diffusion models are often inappropriate models to properly describe the dynamics…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Babak M. S. Arani

In uncertainty quantification, a stochastic modelling is often applied, where parameters are substituted by random variables. We investigate linear dynamical systems of ordinary differential equations with a quantity of interest as output.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-23 Roland Pulch , Akil Narayan

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a computationally efficient sampler for Bayesian posterior inference given a large scale dataset. Although SGLD is designed for unbounded random variables, many practical models incorporate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-21 Soma Yokoi , Takuma Otsuka , Issei Sato

We study a model of a multi-species ecosystem described by Lotka-Volterra-like equations. Interactions among species form a network whose evolution is determined by the dynamics of the model. Numerical simulations show power-law…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Francois Coppex , Michel Droz , Adam Lipowski

Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-18 Fabio Sigrist , Hans R. Künsch , Werner A. Stahel

Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is an important local technique for exploring spatial heterogeneity in data relationships, as well as temporal dependence due to its high fitting capacity when it comes to real…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-21 Héctor Araya , Lisandro Fermín , Silfrido Gómez , Tania Roa , Soledad Torres

The present paper discusses the use of modified Lotka-Volterra equations in order to stochastically simulate the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes and Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) during the fermentation period (168 h) of a typical Sicilian…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-12-11 Alessandro Giuffrida , Davide Valenti , Graziella Ziino , Bernardo Spagnolo , Antonio Panebianco

Stochastic exponential growth is observed in a variety of contexts, including molecular autocatalysis, nuclear fission, population growth, inflation of the universe, viral social media posts, and financial markets. Yet literature on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-06-14 Dan Pirjol , Farshid Jafarpour , Srividya Iyer-Biswas
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