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Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are widely used as generic feature extractors, yet the notion of non-stationarity in their embedding spaces remains poorly understood. Recent work often conflates non-stationarity with distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jinmyeong Choi , Brad Shook , Artur Dubrawski

In addition to the commonly analyzed measures of location, dispersion measurements such as variance and correlation provide many valuable information. Consequently, they play a crucial role in multivariate statistics, which leads to tests…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-26 Paavo Sattler , Svenja Jedhoff

A method for testing nonlinearity in time series is described based on information-theoretic functionals -- redundancies, linear and nonlinear forms of which allow either qualitative, or, after incorporating the surrogate data technique,…

comp-gas · Physics 2015-06-24 Milan PALUS

The 21st century has witnessed a growing interest in the analysis of time series data. Whereas most of the literature on the topic deals with real-valued time series, ordinal time series have typically received much less attention. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Ángel López Oriona , José Antonio Vilar Fernández

The rate of entropy production provides a useful quantitative measure of a non-equilibrium system and estimating it directly from time-series data from experiments is highly desirable. Several approaches have been considered for stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-21 Shun Otsubo , Sreekanth K Manikandan , Takahiro Sagawa , Supriya Krishnamurthy

In this paper, we treat the problem of testing for normality as a binary classification problem and construct a feedforward neural network that can successfully detect normal distributions by inspecting small samples from them. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-08 Miloš Simić

This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…

We develop methodology allowing to simulate a stationary functional time series defined by means of its spectral density operators. Our framework is general, in that it encompasses any such stationary functional time series, whether linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Tomáš Rubín , Victor M. Panaretos

The numerical availability of statistical inference methods for a modern and robust analysis of longitudinal- and multivariate data in factorial experiments is an essential element in research and education. While existing approaches that…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-25 Sarah Friedrich , Frank Konietschke , Markus Pauly

The Portmanteau test provides the vanilla method for detecting serial correlations in classical univariate time series analysis. The method is extended to the case of observations from a locally stationary functional time series. Asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

The random-effects or normal-normal hierarchical model is commonly utilized in a wide range of meta-analysis applications. A Bayesian approach to inference is very attractive in this context, especially when a meta-analysis is based only on…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-29 Christian Röver

We propose a new asymptotic test to assess the stationarity of a time series' mean that is applicable in the presence of both heteroscedasticity and short-range dependence. Our test statistic is composed of Gini's mean difference of local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-23 Sara Kristin Schmidt

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) use a neural network to model the instantaneous rate of change in the state of a system. However, despite their apparent suitability for dynamics-governed time-series, NODEs present a few…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Alexander Norcliffe , Cristian Bodnar , Ben Day , Jacob Moss , Pietro Liò

We introduce PyChEst, a Python package which provides tools for the simultaneous estimation of multiple changepoints in the distribution of piece-wise stationary time series. The nonparametric algorithms implemented are provably consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-21 Azadeh Khaleghi , Lukas Zierahn

We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-21 Axel Bücher , Jean-David Fermanian , Ivan Kojadinovic

We study statistical inferences for a class of modulated stationary processes with time-dependent variances. Due to non-stationarity and the large number of unknown parameters, existing methods for stationary, or locally stationary, time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-04 Zhibiao Zhao , Xiaoye Li

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-16 Vitaly Kuznetsov , Mehryar Mohri

This chapter provides an introduction to the analysis of relational event data (i.e., actions, interactions, or other events involving multiple actors that occur over time) within the R/statnet platform. We begin by reviewing the basics of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-01 Carter T. Butts , Christopher Steven Marcum

The R package BNSP provides a unified framework for semiparametric location-scale regression and stochastic search variable selection. The statistical methodology that the package is built upon utilizes basis function expansions to…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-10-09 Georgios Papageorgiou

Public health surveillance aims at lessening disease burden, e.g., in case of infectious diseases by timely recognizing emerging outbreaks. Seen from a statistical perspective, this implies the use of appropriate methods for monitoring time…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-26 Salmon Maëlle , Schumacher Dirk , Höhle Michael