Related papers: Dynamic causal modelling of immune heterogeneity
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations…
RNA-based vaccination has been broadly applied in the COVID pandemic. A characteristic of the immunization was fast waning immunity. However, the time scale of this process varied considerable for virus subtypes and among individuals.…
The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the…
We study dynamics of a variant of the SIR the model, where we assume that individuals respond differently to dynamics of the epidemic. Their heterogeneous response is modeled by the Preisach hysteresis operator. The degree of heterogeneity…
The steady state properties of the mean density population of infected cells in a viral spread is simulated by a general forest fire like cellular automaton model with two distinct populations of cells ( permissive and resistant ones) and…
This work introduces a new markovian stochastic model that can be described as a non-homogeneous Pure Birth process. We propose a functional form of birth rate that depends on the number of individuals in the population and on the elapsed…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
The paper proposes to analyze epidemiological data using regression models which enable subject-matter (epidemiological) interpretation of such data whether with uncorrelated or correlated predictors. To this end, response functions should…
In this paper we consider a delayed nonlinear model of the dynamics of the immune system against a viral infection that contains wild-type virus and one mutant. A finite response time of the immune system was considered in order which leads…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade…
A dynamic model of non-lineal time-dependent ordinary differential equations (ODE) has been applied to the interactions of a HIV infection with the immune system cells. This model has been simplified into two compartments: lymph node and…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
In temperate regions, respiratory virus epidemics recur on a yearly basis, primarily during the winter season. This is believed to be induced by seasonal forcing, where the rate at which the virus can be transmitted varies cyclically across…
This paper analyzes a simplified model of viral infection and evolution using the 'grand canonical ensemble' and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to enumerate all possible viruses and to derive thermodynamic…
In vaccine development, the temporal profiles of relative abundance of subtypes of immune cells (T-cells) is key to understanding vaccine efficacy. Complex and expensive experimental studies generate very sparse time series data on this…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
We develop a stochastic model to study the specific response of the immune system. The model is based on the dynamical interaction between Regulatory and Effector CD4+ T cells in the presence of Antigen Presenting Cells inside a lymphatic…
A population can be immune to epidemics even if not all of its individual members are immune to the disease, so long as sufficiently many are immune - this is the traditional notion of herd immunity. In the smartphone era a population can…