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This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

Active learning provides a framework to adaptively query the most informative experiments towards learning an unknown black-box function. Various approaches of active learning have been proposed in the literature, however, they either focus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Upala Junaida Islam , Kamran Paynabar , George Runger , Ashif Sikandar Iquebal

Mathematical models are indispensable to the system biology toolkit for studying the structure and behavior of intracellular signaling networks. A common approach to modeling is to develop a system of equations that encode the known biology…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-18 Nathaniel Linden-Santangeli , Jin Zhang , Boris Kramer , Padmini Rangamani

Bayesian implementation concerns decision making problems when agents have incomplete information. This paper proposes that the traditional sufficient conditions for Bayesian implementation shall be amended by virtue of a quantum Bayesian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-09-24 Haoyang Wu

For a theoretical understanding of the reactivity of complex chemical systems, relative energies of stationary points on potential energy hypersurfaces need to be calculated to high accuracy. Due to the large number of intermediates present…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2018-10-30 Gregor N. Simm , Markus Reiher

Hierarchical models are increasingly used in many applications. Along with this increased use comes a desire to investigate whether the model is compatible with the observed data. Bayesian methods are well suited to eliminate the many…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-08 M. J. Bayarri , M. E. Castellanos

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

In this paper, we develop a graphical modeling framework for the inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types. In medical studies, this setting arises whenever a set of subjects, which may be heterogeneous due to…

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

How should we gather information to make effective decisions? We address Bayesian active learning and experimental design problems, where we sequentially select tests to reduce uncertainty about a set of hypotheses. Instead of minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-25 Shervin Javdani , Yuxin Chen , Amin Karbasi , Andreas Krause , J. Andrew Bagnell , Siddhartha Srinivasa

An important goal of environmental health research is to assess the risk posed by mixtures of environmental exposures. Two popular classes of models for mixtures analyses are response-surface methods and exposure-index methods.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Glen McGee , Ander Wilson , Thomas F. Webster , Brent A. Coull

The performance of machine learning models in drug discovery is highly dependent on the quality and consistency of the underlying training data. Due to limitations in dataset sizes, many models are trained by aggregating bioactivity data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Vincent Fan , Regina Barzilay

Exposure assessment models are deterministic models derived from physical-chemical laws. In real workplace settings, chemical concentration measurements can be noisy and indirectly measured. In addition, inference on important parameters…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-09 Nada Abdalla , Sudipto Banerjee , Gurumurthy Ramachandran , Susan Arnold

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yuling Yao , Gregor Pirš , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We introduce a novel Bayesian hybrid matrix factorisation model (HMF) for data integration, based on combining multiple matrix factorisation methods, that can be used for in- and out-of-matrix prediction of missing values. The model is very…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-18 Thomas Brouwer , Pietro Lió

Bayesian hierarchical models are well-suited to analyzing the often noisy data from electroencephalography experiments in cognitive neuroscience: these models provide an intuitive framework to account for structures and correlations in the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-17 Davide Turco , Conor Houghton

Time to an event of interest over a lifetime is a central measure of the clinical benefit of an intervention used in a health technology assessment (HTA). Within the same trial, multiple end-points may also be considered. For example,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-13 Nathan Green , Murat Kurt , Andriy Moshyk , James Larkin , Gianluca Baio

Innovation in synthetic biology often still depends on large-scale experimental trial-and-error, domain expertise, and ingenuity. The application of rational design engineering methods promise to make this more efficient, faster, cheaper…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-18 Robyn P. Araujo , Sean T. Vittadello , Michael P. H. Stumpf

We introduce a hierarchical framework that combines ab initio many-body calculations with a Bayesian neural network, developing emulators capable of accurately predicting nuclear properties across isotopic chains simultaneously and being…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-04-01 Antoine Belley , Jose M. Munoz , Ronald F. Garcia Ruiz