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We argue for a foundational epistemic claim and a hypothesis about the production and uses of mathematical epidemiological models, exploring the consequences for our political and socio-economic lives. First, in order to make the best use…

We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…

We propose a kinetic model for understanding the link between opinion formation phenomena and epidemic dynamics. The recent pandemic has brought to light that vaccine hesitancy can present different phases and temporal and spatial…

We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion…

Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion…

We achieve two primary goals in this work. First, we propose a flexible algorithm that can simulate various scenarios of state/government intervention. Secondly, we analyze the scenario exhibiting the critical behavior of the market of…

Uncertainty persists over how and why some countries become democratic and others do not, or why some countries remain democratic and others 'backslide' toward autocracy. Furthermore, while scholars generally agree on the nature of…

Understanding cooperation in social systems is challenging because the ever-changing rules that govern societies interact with individual actions, resulting in intricate collective outcomes. In virtual-world experiments, we allowed people…

The use of science for policy is at the core of a perfect storm generated by the insurgence of several concurrent crises: of science, of trust, of sustainability. The modern positivistic model of science for policy, known as evidence based…

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric framework based on multi-task Gaussian processes, appropriate for temporal shrinkage. We focus on a particular class of dynamic hierarchical models to obtain evidence-based knowledge of infectious…

Multi-model prediction efforts in infectious disease modeling and climate modeling involve multiple teams independently producing projections under various scenarios. Often these scenarios are produced by the presence and absence of a…

The recent coronavirus outbreak has made governments face an inconvenient tradeoff choice, i.e. the choice between saving lives and saving the economy, forcing them to make immensely consequential decisions among alternative courses of…

Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in…

Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…

An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…

This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…

Polarization of societies is getting more and more attention from researchers working at the intersection of many fields, because it seems to be a defining feature of many public domains. In this paper, we are going to investigate how the…

Evidence-based knowledge of infectious disease burden, including prevalence, incidence, severity and transmission, in different population strata and locations, and possibly in real time, is crucial to the planning and evaluation of public…

The simultaneous emergence of several abrupt disease outbreaks or the extinction of some serotypes of multi-strain diseases are fingerprints of the interaction between pathogens spreading within the same population. Here, we propose a…

Elections constitute a paradigm of decision-making problems that have puzzled experts of different disciplines for decades. We study two decision-making problems, where groups make decisions that impact only themselves as a group. In both…