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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a crucial but challenging task in many high-dimensional regression or learning problems to increase the confidence of a given predictor. We develop a new data-driven approach for UQ in regression that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Frederik Hoppe , Claudio Mayrink Verdun , Hannah Laus , Felix Krahmer , Holger Rauhut

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Xu Wu , Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Tomasz Kozlowski

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Claudia Schillings , Ian H. Sloan

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-26 M. Croci , K. E. Willcox , S. J. Wright

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-03-31 Pascal Pernot

Development of an accurate, flexible, and numerically efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) method is one of fundamental challenges in machine learning. Previously, a UQ method called DISCO Nets has been proposed (Bouchacourt et al.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Chetan Gupta

We consider the problem of deriving from experimental data an approximation of an unknown function, whose derivatives also approximate the unknown function derivatives. Solving this problem is useful, for instance, in the context of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-11 Carlo Novara , Angelo Nicolì , Giuseppe C. Calafiore

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for model trustworthiness which aims to sensitively identify semantic OOD samples and robustly generalize for covariate-shifted OOD samples. However, we discover that the superior OOD…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Qingyang Zhang , Qiuxuan Feng , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Yatao Bian , Qinghua Hu , Changqing Zhang

We provide several quantum algorithms for continuous optimization that do not require gradient estimation. Instead, we encode the optimization problem into the dynamics of a physical system and coherently simulate the time evolution. We…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Ahmet Burak Catli , Sophia Simon , Nathan Wiebe

Quality-Diversity optimisation (QD) has proven to yield promising results across a broad set of applications. However, QD approaches struggle in the presence of uncertainty in the environment, as it impacts their ability to quantify the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Manon Flageat , Antoine Cully

Uncertainty quantification for inverse problems in imaging has drawn much attention lately. Existing approaches towards this task define uncertainty regions based on probable values per pixel, while ignoring spatial correlations within the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Omer Belhasin , Yaniv Romano , Daniel Freedman , Ehud Rivlin , Michael Elad

Achieving optimality in controlling physical systems is a profound challenge across diverse scientific and engineering fields, spanning neuromechanics, biochemistry, autonomous systems, economics, and beyond. Traditional solutions, relying…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-14 Tingli Hu , Sami Haddadin

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Fault-tolerant quantum computing is a promising technology to solve linear partial differential equations that are classically demanding to integrate. It is still challenging to solve non-linear equations in fluid dynamics, such as the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-16 Fumio Uchida , Koichi Miyamoto , Soichiro Yamazaki , Kotaro Fujisawa , Naoki Yoshida

Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring adequate predictive power of computational models used in biology. Focusing on two anaerobic digestion models, this article introduces a novel generalized Bayesian procedure, called…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-02 Antoine Picard-Weibel , Gabriel Capson-Tojo , Benjamin Guedj , Roman Moscoviz

This paper investigates the problem of efficient constrained global optimization of hybrid models that are a composition of a known white-box function and an expensive multi-output black-box function subject to noisy observations, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-31 Congwen Lu , Joel A. Paulson

This papers shows the convergence of optimal control problems where the constraint function is discretised by a particle method. In particular, we investigate the viscous Burgers equation in the whole space $\mathbb R$ by using…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Jan Marburger , Rene Pinnau

This paper presents a novel optimization framework of formulating the three-phase optimal power flow that involves uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty-aware optimization (UaO) framework is: 1) a deterministic framework that is less…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-21 Qifeng Li

Recent advances in objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) have shown that such a goal-driven approach for quantifying model uncertainty is extremely useful in real-world problems that aim at achieving specific objectives…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-10 Hyun-Myung Woo , Youngjoon Hong , Bongsuk Kwon , Byung-Jun Yoon

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo