Related papers: Disease control as an optimization problem
Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…
The COVID-19 pandemic poses challenges for continuing economic activity while reducing health risks. While these challenges can be mitigated through testing, testing budget is often limited. Here we study how institutions, such as nursing…
The Covid-19 pandemic has made clear the need to improve modern multivariate time-series forecasting models. Current state of the art predictions of future daily deaths and, especially, hospital resource usage have confidence intervals that…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
We study first order necessary conditions for an optimal control problem of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with limitations on the duration of the quarantine. The control is done by means of the reproduction number, i.e., the…
As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the…
The year 2020 has seen the COVID-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world are faced with the challenge of protecting public health, while keeping the economy running to the…
We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the…
This paper utilizes a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-recovered (SIR) model with a non-linear incidence rate to perform a detailed mathematical study of optimal lock-down intensity and vaccination rate under the COVID-19 pandemic…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
In this paper, we study a class of finite-time control problems for discrete-time positive linear systems with time-varying state parameters. Although several interesting control problems appearing in population biology, economics, and…
The aim of this paper is to provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of an optimal control problem with SIR dynamics. The main feature of our study is the presence of state constraints (related to intensive care units ICU capacity) and…
This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…
The optimal control problem of stochastic systems is commonly solved via robust or scenario-based optimization methods, which are both challenging to scale to long optimization horizons. We cast the optimal control problem of a stochastic…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
This paper develops a method to learn optimal controls from data for bilinear systems without a priori knowledge of the system dynamics. Given an unknown bilinear system, we first characterize when the available data is suitable to solve…
Recent wide spreading of Ransomware has created new challenges for cybersecurity over large-scale networks. The densely connected networks can exacerbate the spreading and makes the containment and control of the malware more challenging.…
Imported COVID-19 cases, if unchecked, can jeopardize the effort of domestic containment. We aim to find out what sustainable border control options for different entities (e.g., countries, states) exist during the reopening phases, given…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…