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It has been suggested that adversarial examples cause deep learning models to make incorrect predictions with high confidence. In this work, we take the opposite stance: an overly confident model is more likely to be vulnerable to…

Data analysis based on information from several sources is common in economic and biomedical studies. This setting is often referred to as the data fusion problem, which differs from traditional missing data problems since no complete data…

Risk assessment tools are widely used around the country to inform decision making within the criminal justice system. Recently, considerable attention has been devoted to the question of whether such tools may suffer from racial bias. In…

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

In our modern society, people are daily confronted with an increasing amount of information of any kind. As a consequence, the attention capacities and processing abilities of individuals often saturate. People, therefore, have to select…

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…

Recent attempts to achieve fairness in predictive models focus on the balance between fairness and accuracy. In sensitive applications such as healthcare or criminal justice, this trade-off is often undesirable as any increase in prediction…

Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through…

In conducting preliminary analysis during an epidemic, data on reported disease cases offer key information in guiding the direction to the in-depth analysis. Models for growth and transmission dynamics are heavily dependent on preliminary…

Granularity and accuracy are two crucial factors for crime event prediction. Within fine-grained event classification, multiple criminal intents may alternately exhibit in preceding sequential events, and progress differently in next. Such…

Many prediction tasks can admit multiple models that can perform almost equally well. This phenomenon can can undermine interpretability and safety when competing models assign conflicting predictions to individuals. In this work, we study…

Combining evidence from different sources can be achieved with Bayesian or Dempster-Shafer methods. The first requires an estimate of the priors and likelihoods while the second only needs an estimate of the posterior probabilities and…

In many settings, an effective way of evaluating objects of interest is to collect evaluations from dispersed individuals and to aggregate these evaluations together. Some examples are categorizing online content and evaluating student…

Over time, clinical trials have increasingly incorporated complex design and analysis elements such as interim analyses, adaptations, multiple endpoints, and sophisticated multiplicity schemes for multiple endpoints and/or treatment arms…

Not only correctness but also self-confidence play an important role in improving the quality of knowledge. Undesirable situations such as confident incorrect and unconfident correct knowledge prevent learners from revising their knowledge…

Owing to the growing population density of urban areas, many people are being increasingly exposed to criminal activity. Increasing crime rates raise the risk of both physical and psychological injury to law-abiding citizens, creating…

Content moderation typically combines the efforts of human moderators and machine learning models. However, these systems often rely on data where significant disagreement occurs during moderation, reflecting the subjective nature of…

Crime is highly concentrated in a few places, is committed by a few offenders and is suffered by a few victims. In recent decades, the concentration of crime has become an accepted fact, yet, little is known in terms of how to measure this…