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We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-02 Joonha Park , Edward L. Ionides

In this paper we introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially-observed multivariate diffusions. %continuous-time dynamic models where the %signal is given by a multivariate diffusion process. We consider a variety of…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Paul Fearnhead , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

Spatial reaction-diffusion models have been employed to describe many emergent phenomena in biological systems. The modelling technique most commonly adopted in the literature implements systems of partial differential equations (PDEs),…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-10-05 Christian A. Yates , Mark B. Flegg

Parameter estimation is a growing area of interest in statistical signal processing. Some parameters in real-life applications vary in space as opposed to those that are static. Most common methods in estimating parameters involve solving…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-02 David Angwenyi

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Haoxuan Chen , Yinuo Ren , Martin Renqiang Min , Lexing Ying , Zachary Izzo

With a view to statistical inference for discretely observed diffusion models, we propose simple methods of simulating diffusion bridges, approximately and exactly. Diffusion bridge simulation plays a fundamental role in likelihood and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-10 Mogens Bladt , Michael Sørensen

The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-09 Constantino A. García , Abraham Otero , Paulo Félix , Jesús Presedo , David G. Márquez

Given an unconditional diffusion model targeting a joint model $\pi(x, y)$, using it to perform conditional simulation $\pi(x \mid y)$ is still largely an open question and is typically achieved by learning conditional drifts to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Adrien Corenflos , Zheng Zhao , Simo Särkkä , Jens Sjölund , Thomas B. Schön

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

Computation · Statistics 2009-11-03 Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn , Mike Pitt

We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Wolpert , Chiu Fan Lee

I show how Markov chain sampling with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can be modified so as to take bigger steps when the distribution being sampled from has the characteristic that its density can be quickly recomputed for a new point if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Radford M. Neal

We investigate the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample posterior distribution in a Bayesian inverse problem, where the likelihood function is random. Concretely, we consider the case where one has full field observations of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Emil Løvbak , Sebastian Krumscheid

Stochastic differential equations provide a powerful tool for modelling dynamic phenomena affected by random noise. In case of repeated observations of time series for several experimental units, it is often the case that some of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-06 Fernando Baltazar-Larios , Mogens Bladt , Michael Sørensen

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jingning Yao , Ajay Jasra , Sheng Jiang

We consider lithological tomography in which the posterior distribution of (hydro)geological parameters of interest is inferred from geophysical data by treating the intermediate geophysical properties as latent variables. In such a latent…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-10-12 Lea Friedli , Niklas Linde , David Ginsbourger , Arnaud Doucet

The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Estevão Prado , Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Matteo Giordano , Sven Wang

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-19 Gavin A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Richard J. Boys , Chris Sherlock

We consider the problem of statistical inference for a class of partially-observed diffusion processes, with discretely-observed data and finite-dimensional parameters. We construct unbiased estimators of the score function, i.e. the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-12 Jeremy Heng , Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra

Identifying model parameters from observed configurations poses a fundamental challenge in data science, especially with limited data. Recently, diffusion models have emerged as a novel paradigm in generative machine learning, capable of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-03-14 Yechan Lim , Sangwon Lee , Junghyo Jo