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Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

We consider assessing causal mediation in the presence of a post-treatment event (examples include noncompliance, a clinical event, or death). We identify natural mediation effects for the entire study population and for each principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

Estimating the health effects of multiple air pollutants is a crucial problem in public health, but one that is difficult due to unmeasured confounding bias. Motivated by this issue, we develop a framework for partial identification of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Suyeon Kang , Alexander Franks , Michelle Audirac , Danielle Braun , Joseph Antonelli

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Joseph Antonelli , Matthew Cefalu

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the total deaths averted by vaccination has been of great public health interest. Instead of estimating total deaths averted by vaccination among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, some…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-09 Katherine M. Jia , Christopher B. Boyer , Alyssa Bilinski , Marc Lipsitch

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in causal reasoning for designing fair decision-making systems due to its compatibility with legal frameworks, interpretability for human stakeholders, and robustness to spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Aida Rahmattalabi , Alice Xiang

Mediation analysis breaks down the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome into an indirect effect, acting through a third group of variables called mediators, and a direct effect, operating through other mechanisms. Mediation analysis…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-13 Judith Abécassis , Houssam Zenati , Sami Boumaïza , Julie Josse , Bertrand Thirion

Clinical decisions to treat and diagnose patients are affected by implicit biases formed by racism, ableism, sexism, and other stereotypes. These biases reflect broader systemic discrimination in healthcare and risk marginalizing already…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Kara Liu , Russ Altman , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Interference arises when an individual's potential outcome depends on the individual treatment level, but also on the treatment level of others. A common assumption in the causal inference literature in the presence of interference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-15 Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fabrizia Mealli , Corwin M. Zigler

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

Theoretical guarantees for causal inference using propensity scores are partly based on the scores behaving like conditional probabilities. However, scores between zero and one, especially when outputted by flexible statistical estimators,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Rom Gutman , Ehud Karavani , Yishai Shimoni

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Jianle Sun , Zeyu Tang , Gongxu Luo , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Algorithmic risk assessment instruments (RAIs) increasingly inform decision-making in criminal justice. RAIs largely rely on arrest records as a proxy for underlying crime. Problematically, the extent to which arrests reflect overall…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Miri Zilka , Riccardo Fogliato , Jiri Hron , Bradley Butcher , Carolyn Ashurst , Adrian Weller

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

There are several estimators of conditional probability from observed frequencies of features. In this paper, we propose using the lower limit of confidence interval on posterior distribution determined by the observed frequencies to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-09-26 Masato Kikuchi , Eiko Yamamoto , Mitsuo Yoshida , Masayuki Okabe , Kyoji Umemura