Related papers: A Mortality Model for Multi-populations: A Semi-Pa…

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…

Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…

This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evolving transmission dynamics. We propose a class of…

We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter)…

In areas of application, including actuarial science and demography, it is increasingly common to consider a time series of curves; an example of this is age-specific mortality rates observed over a period of years. Given that age can be…

While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…

This study describes the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and infections via a Monte Carlo approach. The analyses include death's data from USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, India and Russia, which comprise the four countries with the highest number of…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, inform the public, and assist governments in decision making. Our goal is to develop a globally applicable…

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is defined as the number of maternal deaths in a population per 100,000 live births. Country-specific MMR estimates are published on a regular basis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation…

Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have…

In biomedical settings, multitype recurrent events such as stroke and heart failure occur frequently, often concluding with a terminal event such as death. Understanding the links between these recurring and terminal events is fundamental…

Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…

Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…

This article proposes an age-structured compartment model for irreversible diseases with a pre-clinical state of undiagnosed cases that precedes the diagnosis. The model is able to cope with mortality rates differing between the…

Most studies on inequality in infant and child mortality compare average mortality rates between large groups of births, for example, comparing births from different countries, income groups, ethnicities, or different times. These studies…

Assume that we observe a large number of curves, all of them with identical, although unknown, shape, but with a different random shift. The objective is to estimate the individual time shifts and their distribution. Such an objective…