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Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather prediction and reanalyses for climate research. Yet, existing…
As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…
Mercury is the closest planet to the Sun, possesses a weak intrinsic magnetic field and has only a very tenuous atmosphere (exosphere). These three conditions result in a direct coupling between the plasma emitted from the Sun (namely the…
Accurately predicting the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, particularly during the passage of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), is a crucial objective for space weather predictions. Currently, only a handful…
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program is a U.S. Department of Energy project that collects meteorological observations at several locations around the world in order to study how weather processes affect global climate change. As…
Propagation of interplanetary (IP) shocks, particularly those driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is still an outstanding question in heliophysics and space weather forecasting. Here we address effects of the ambient solar wind on the…
In this paper, we investigate the heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays in interplanetary space, focusing on their propagation times and energy losses over the solar cycle. To perform the calculations, we employed a data-driven model based…
Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power…
The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar…
Planets in close-in orbit interact with the magnetized wind of their hosting star. This magnetic interaction was proposed to be a source for enhanced emissions in the chromosphere of the star, and to participate in setting the migration…
Accurate acquisition of high-resolution surface meteorological conditions is critical for forecasting and simulating meteorological variables. Directly applying spatial interpolation methods to derive meteorological values at specific…
Context. Magnetic reconnection events are frequently observed in the solar wind. Understanding the patterns and structures within the solar wind is crucial to put observed magnetic reconnection events into context, since their occurrence…
We review the field of data assimilation (DA) from a Bayesian perspective and show that, in addition to its by now common application to state estimation, DA may be used for model selection. An important special case of the latter is the…
The Sun and other solar-type stars have magnetic fields that permeate their interior and surface, extends through the interplanetary medium, and is the main driver of stellar activity. Stellar magnetic activity affects physical processes…
As galactic cosmic rays propagate through the turbulent plasma environment within the heliosphere, they undergo a process of diffusion, drift and energy loss, leading to a notable reduction in their flux. This is the solar modulation…
Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic…
Ground-based astronomy has to correct astronomical observations from the impact of the atmospheric transparency and its variability.The current objective of several observatories is to achieve a sub-percent level monitoring of atmospheric…
Predictions of the solar wind at Earth are a central aspect of space weather prediction. The outcome of such a prediction, however, is highly sensitive to the method used for computing the magnetic field in the corona. We analyze the impact…
Mercury, due to its close location to the Sun, is surrounded by an environment whose conditions may be considered as "extreme" in the entire Solar System. Both solar wind and radiation are stronger with respect to other Solar System bodies,…