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A fundamental result in psycholinguistics is that less predictable words take a longer time to process. One theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008), which quantifies a word's predictability as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox , Tiago Pimentel , Clara Meister , Ryan Cotterell , Roger P. Levy

In psycholinguistic modeling, surprisal from larger pre-trained language models has been shown to be a poorer predictor of naturalistic human reading times. However, it has been speculated that this may be due to data leakage that caused…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Byung-Doh Oh , Hongao Zhu , William Schuler

Recent psycholinguistic studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict human reading times, which has been speculated to be due…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Byung-Doh Oh , William Schuler

To date, most investigations on surprisal and entropy effects in reading have been conducted on the group level, disregarding individual differences. In this work, we revisit the predictive power of surprisal and entropy measures estimated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Patrick Haller , Lena S. Bolliger , Lena A. Jäger

How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Sathvik Nair , Byung-Doh Oh

Language-model (LM) surprisal is widely used as a proxy for contextual predictability and has been reported to correlate with metaphor novelty judgments. However, surprisal is tightly intertwined with lexical frequency. We explore this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Omar Momen , Sina Zarrieß

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Tong Liu , Iza Škrjanec , Vera Demberg

Surprisal theory posits that the processing difficulty of a word is determined by its predictability in context, offering a potential link between human sentence processing and next-word predictions from language models. While language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-18 William Timkey , Brian Dillon , Tal Linzen

Human reading behavior is tuned to the statistics of natural language: the time it takes human subjects to read a word can be predicted from estimates of the word's probability in context. However, it remains an open question what…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-06-04 Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox , Jon Gauthier , Jennifer Hu , Peng Qian , Roger Levy

We present a new perspective on how readers integrate context during real-time language comprehension. Our proposals build on surprisal theory, which posits that the processing effort of a linguistic unit (e.g., a word) is an affine…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Andreas Opedal , Eleanor Chodroff , Ryan Cotterell , Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

The effect of surprisal on processing difficulty has been a central topic of investigation in psycholinguistics. Here, we use eyetracking data to examine three language processing regimes that are common in daily life but have not been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Keren Gruteke Klein , Yoav Meiri , Omer Shubi , Yevgeni Berzak

Prediction in language has traditionally been studied using simple designs in which neural responses to expected and unexpected words are compared in a categorical fashion. However, these designs have been contested as being `prediction…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-11 Micha Heilbron , Benedikt Ehinger , Peter Hagoort , Floris P. de Lange

Surprisal theory posits that the cognitive effort required to comprehend a word is determined by its contextual predictability, quantified as surprisal. Traditionally, surprisal theory treats words as distinct entities, overlooking any…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Clara Meister , Mario Giulianelli , Tiago Pimentel

There has been considerable interest in using surprisal from Transformer-based language models (LMs) as predictors of human sentence processing difficulty. Recent work has observed an inverse scaling relationship between Transformers'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Yi-Chien Lin , William Schuler

Recent studies have shown that as Transformer-based language models become larger and are trained on very large amounts of data, the fit of their surprisal estimates to naturalistic human reading times degrades. The current work presents a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Byung-Doh Oh , Shisen Yue , William Schuler

Probing has shown that language model representations encode rich linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing. In this work, we probe language model representations for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Eleftheria Tsipidi , Samuel Kiegeland , Francesco Ignazio Re , Tianyang Xu , Mario Giulianelli , Karolina Stanczak , Ryan Cotterell

This work presents a detailed linguistic analysis into why larger Transformer-based pre-trained language models with more parameters and lower perplexity nonetheless yield surprisal estimates that are less predictive of human reading times.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-26 Byung-Doh Oh , William Schuler

Research on the cognitive plausibility of language models (LMs) has so far mostly concentrated on modelling psycholinguistic response variables such as reading times, gaze durations and N400/P600 EEG signals, while mostly leaving out the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Julius Steuer , Marius Mosbach , Dietrich Klakow

Novel metaphor comprehension involves complex semantic processes and linguistic creativity, making it an interesting task for studying language models (LMs). This study investigates whether surprisal, a probabilistic measure of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Omar Momen , Emilie Sitter , Berenike Herrmann , Sina Zarrieß

Though there is a strong consensus that word length and frequency are the most important single-word features determining visual-orthographic access to the mental lexicon, there is less agreement as how to best capture syntactic and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Markus J. Hofmann , Steffen Remus , Chris Biemann , Ralph Radach , Lars Kuchinke
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