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Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-19 Seyda Betul Aydin , Holger Brandt

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation, at the heart of counterfactual reasoning, is a crucial challenge for causal modeling both theoretically and applicatively, in domains such as healthcare, sociology, or advertising.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Armand Lacombe , Michèle Sebag

Covariate balancing is a popular technique for controlling confounding in observational studies. It finds weights for the treatment group which are close to uniform, but make the group's covariate means (approximately) equal to those of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Shiva Kaul , Min-Gyu Kim

Although complete randomization is widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference, covariate imbalance can still arise by chance in finite samples. Rerandomization has emerged as an effective tool to improve covariate balance…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Tingxuan Han , Yuhao Wang

When the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption is violated and there is interference among units, there is not a uniquely defined Average Treatment Effect, and alternative estimands may be of interest. Among these are average unit-level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Molly Offer-Westort , Drew Dimmery

When evaluating the efficacy of social programs and medical treatments using randomized experiments, the estimated overall average causal effect alone is often of limited value and the researchers must investigate when the treatments do and…

Applications · Statistics 2013-05-27 Kosuke Imai , Marc Ratkovic

Demand response is designed to motivate electricity customers to modify their loads at critical time periods. The accurate estimation of impact of demand response signals to customers' consumption is central to any successful program. In…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-03 Pan Li , Baosen Zhang

In paired randomized experiments individuals in a given matched pair may differ on prognostically important covariates despite the best efforts of practitioners. We examine the use of regression adjustment as a way to correct for persistent…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-27 Colin B. Fogarty

We consider Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) of weighted average treatment effects (WATEs), a class of causal estimands that reweight the covariate distribution using a specified function of the propensity score. This class…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Yang Liu , Patrick Lopatto , Ivana Malenica

We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, where drivers move over time, and social networks, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Su Jia , Peter Frazier , Nathan Kallus , Christina Lee Yu

Generalizing estimates of causal effects from an experiment to a target population is of interest to scientists. However, researchers are usually constrained by available covariate information. Analysts can often collect much fewer…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Naoki Egami , Erin Hartman

When estimating a Global Average Treatment Effect (GATE) under network interference, units can have widely different relationships to the treatment depending on a combination of the structure of their network neighborhood, the structure of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Kevin Han , Johan Ugander

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

In large observational studies, the case-cohort design is commonly used to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. For survival outcomes, literature has suggested that the restricted mean survival time (RMST) be a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andy Ni , Wei-En Lu , Bo Lu

To generalize inferences from a randomized trial to the target population of all trial-eligible individuals, investigators can use nested trial designs, where the randomized individuals are nested within a cohort of trial-eligible…

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Modeling distributions of covariates, or density estimation, is a core challenge in unsupervised learning. However, the majority of work only considers the joint distribution, which has limited utility in practical situations. A more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Ryan R. Strauss , Junier B. Oliva

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Ying Jin , José Zubizarreta

In response to the growing need for generating real-world evidence from multi-site collaborative studies, we introduce an efficient collaborative learning approach to evaluate average treatment effect (ECO-ATE) in a multi-site setting under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sijia Li , Rui Duan

Paired cluster-randomized experiments (pCRTs) are common across many disciplines because there is often natural clustering of individuals, and paired randomization can help balance baseline covariates to improve experimental precision.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Charlotte Z. Mann , Adam C. Sales , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch