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In this paper the estimation of the distribution function for potential outcomes to receiving or not receiving a treatment is studied. The approach is based on weighting observed data on the basis on estimated propensity score. A weighted…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Pier Luigi Conti , Livia De Giovanni

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

The ability to generalize experimental results from randomized control trials (RCTs) across locations is crucial for informing policy decisions in targeted regions. Such generalization is often hindered by the lack of identifiability due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-10 Xinkun Nie , Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

Researchers often use linear regression to analyse randomized experiments to improve treatment effect estimation by adjusting for imbalances of covariates in the treatment and control groups. Our work offers a randomization-based inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Hanzhong Liu , Yuehan Yang

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

Platform trials are multi-arm designs that simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments for a single disease within the same overall trial structure. Unlike traditional randomized controlled trials, they allow treatment arms to enter and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Michele Santacatterina , Federico Macchiavelli Giron , Xinyi Zhang , Ivan Diaz

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large…

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Zilong Wang , Ali Abdeen , Turgay Ayer

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

In this article, we propose the outcome-adjusted balance measure to perform model selection for the generalized propensity score (GPS), which serves as an essential component in estimation of the pairwise average treatment effects (ATEs) in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-28 Honghe Zhao , Shu Yang

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide strong internal validity compared with observational studies. However, selection bias threatens the external validity of randomized trials. Thus, RCT results may not apply to either broad public…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-26 Ziyue Chen , Eloise Kaizar

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Two-phase sampling is a simple and cost-effective estimation strategy in survey sampling and is widely used in practice. Because the phase-2 sampling probability typically depends on low-cost variables collected at phase 1, naive estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Kazuharu Harada , Masataka Taguri

Common causal estimands include the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect of the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the controls (ATC). Using augmented inverse probability weighting methods, parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Roland A. Matsouaka , Yi Liu , Yunji Zhou

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu
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