Related papers: Preventing epidemics by wearing masks: An applicat…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a serious global epidemic in the past few months and caused huge loss to human society worldwide. For such a large-scale epidemic, early detection and isolation of potential virus carriers is…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…

Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…

Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…

The risk for severe illness and mortality from COVID-19 significantly increases with age. As a result, age-stratified modeling for COVID-19 dynamics is the key to study how to reduce hospitalizations and mortality from COVID-19. By taking…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…

In this note, we describe simple generalizations of the basic SIR model for epidemic, in case of a multi-region scenario, to be used for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Italy.

The present article studies the extension of two deterministic models for describing the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis, the SIR model and the SEIR model. The models were studied and compared to real data in order to support the validity…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…

Wearing face mask is an effective measure to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infections and control its transmission, thus its usage survey is important for better policy decision to mitigate the epidemic spread. Current existing worldwide…

In the COVID--19 pandemic, among the more controversial issues is the use of masks and face coverings. Much of the concern boils down to the question -- just how effective are face coverings? One means to address this question is to review…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

A health crisis is raging all over the world with the rapid transmission of the novel-coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Out of the guidelines issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to protect us against Covid-19, wearing a facemask is…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical role of human behavior in influencing infectious disease transmission and the need for models capturing this complex dynamic. We present an agent-based model integrating an epidemiological…

Due to the epidemic of the coronavirus (Covid-19) and its rapid spread around the world, the world has faced an enormous crisis. To prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the World Health Organization (WHO) has introduced the use of masks…