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Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

In the regression problem, L1 and L2 are the most commonly used loss functions, which produce mean predictions with different biases. However, the predictions are neither robust nor adequate enough since they only capture a few conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-14 Faen Zhang , Xinyu Fan , Hui Xu , Pengcheng Zhou , Yujian He , Junlong Liu

The quantile regression kink design (QRKD) is proposed by empirical researchers as a potential method to assess heterogeneous treatment effects under suitable research designs, but its causal interpretation remains unknown. We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Harold D. Chiang , Yuya Sasaki

Regression models that go beyond the mean, alongside coherent risk measures, have been important tools in modern data analysis. This paper introduces the innovative concept of Average Quantile Regression (AQR), which is smooth at the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Rong Jiang , M. C. Jones , Keming Yu , Jiangfeng Wang

Kink model is developed to analyze the data where the regression function is twostage linear but intersects at an unknown threshold. In quantile regression with longitudinal data, previous work assumed that the unknown threshold parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-07 Chuang Wan

Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric…

Continuous value prediction plays a crucial role in industrial-scale recommendation systems, including tasks such as predicting users' watch-time and estimating the gross merchandise value (GMV) in e-commerce transactions. However, it…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Runpeng Cui , Zhipeng Sun , Chi Lu , Peng Jiang

It is well known that it is impossible to construct useful confidence intervals (CIs) about the mean or median of a response $Y$ conditional on features $X = x$ without making strong assumptions about the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Jayoon Jang , Emmanuel Candès

High-dimensional data analysis has been an active area, and the main focuses have been variable selection and dimension reduction. In practice, it occurs often that the variables are located on an unknown, lower-dimensional nonlinear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-31 Ming-Yen Cheng , Hau-tieng Wu

Penalized quantile regression (QR) is widely used for studying the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictors under data heterogeneity in high-dimensional settings. Compared to penalized least squares, scalable…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-06 Rebeka Man , Xiaoou Pan , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

To make inferences about the shape of a population distribution, the widely popular mean regression model, for example, is inadequate if the distribution is not approximately Gaussian (or symmetric). Compared to conventional mean regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-18 Luis E. Benites , Víctor H. Lachos , Filidor E. Vilca

Low-rank multivariate regression (LRMR) is an important statistical learning model that combines highly correlated tasks as a multiresponse regression problem with low-rank priori on the coefficient matrix. In this paper, we study quantized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-10 Junren Chen , Yueqi Wang , Michael K. Ng

Incomplete covariate vectors are known to be problematic for estimation and inferences on model parameters, but their impact on prediction performance is less understood. We develop an imputation-free method that builds on a random…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-31 Matthew J. Heiner , Garritt L. Page , Fernando Andrés Quintana

The practical importance of inference with robustness against large bandwidths for causal effects in regression discontinuity and kink designs is widely recognized. Existing robust methods cover many cases, but do not handle uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-26 Harold D. Chiang , Yu-Chin Hsu , Yuya Sasaki

Quantile regression is a method to estimate the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable, and as such it permits a much more accurate portrayal of the relationship between the response variable and observed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-01-08 Jiyan Yang , Xiangrui Meng , Michael W. Mahoney

Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) are a common quasi-experiment in economics and statistics. The most popular methodologies for analyzing RDDs utilize continuity-based assumptions and local polynomial regression, but recent works have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-06 Zach Branson , Fabrizia Mealli

Distributional linear quadratic regulator (LQR) is a new framework that integrates the distributional reinforcement learning and classical LQR, which offers a new way to study the random return instead of the expected cost. Unlike iterative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Ruyi Teng , Dan Wang , Wei Chen , Yulong Gao

Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Axel Brando , Joan Gimeno , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Jordi Vitrià

We showcase how Quantile Regression (QR) can be applied to forecast financial returns using Limit Order Books (LOBs), the canonical data source of high-frequency financial time-series. We develop a deep learning architecture that…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-13 Zihao Zhang , Stefan Zohren , Stephen Roberts

End-to-end engineering design pipelines, in which designs are evaluated using concurrently defined optimal controllers, are becoming increasingly common in practice. To discover designs that perform well even under the misspecification of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-10 Yash Patel , Sahana Rayan , Ambuj Tewari