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Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-01 Morgane Menz , Sylvain Dubreuil , Jérôme Morio , Christian Gogu , Nathalie Bartoli , Marie Chiron

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

We derive an upper bound for the efficiency of estimating entries in the inverse covariance matrix of a high dimensional distribution. We show that in order to approximate an off-diagonal entry of the density matrix of a $d$-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-06 Ronen Eldan

We investigate the efficiency of a marginal likelihood estimator where the product of the marginal posterior distributions is used as an importance-sampling function. The approach is generally applicable to multi-block parameter vector…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-08 K. Perrakis , I. Ntzoufras , E. G. Tsionas

The efficiency of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm might be measured by the cost of generating one independent sample, or equivalently, the total cost divided by the effective sample size, defined in terms of the integrated…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Youhan Fang , Yudong Cao , Robert D. Skeel

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-29 Pierre Nyquist

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

The basic idea of importance sampling is to use independent samples from a proposal measure in order to approximate expectations with respect to a target measure. It is key to understand how many samples are required in order to guarantee…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-17 S. Agapiou , O. Papaspiliopoulos , D. Sanz-Alonso , A. M. Stuart

Gaussian Boson Sampling (GBS) have shown advantages over classical methods for performing some specific sampling tasks. To fully harness the computational power of GBS, there has been great interest in identifying their practical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-28 Jørgen Ellegaard Andersen , Shan Shan

Importance sampling is a promising variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation based derivative pricing. Existing importance sampling methods are based on a parametric choice of the proposal. This article proposes an algorithm…

Applications · Statistics 2009-04-14 Jan C. Neddermeyer

In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-04 Jeffrey F. Collamore , Guoqing Diao , Anand N. Vidyashankar

We present a new quantum algorithm for estimating the mean of a real-valued random variable obtained as the output of a quantum computation. Our estimator achieves a nearly-optimal quadratic speedup over the number of classical i.i.d.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-11-16 Yassine Hamoudi

The computation of Gaussian orthant probabilities has been extensively studied for low-dimensional vectors. Here, we focus on the high-dimensional case and we present a two-step procedure relying on both deterministic and stochastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-03 Dario Azzimonti , David Ginsbourger

In this work, we develop an importance sampling estimator by coupling the reduced-order model and the generative model in a problem setting of uncertainty quantification. The target is to estimate the probability that the quantity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Xiaoliang Wan , Shuangqing Wei

Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Souad Benchaira , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Miguel de Carvalho , Soraia Pereira , Paula Pereira , Patrícia de Zea Bermudez

In this paper, we propose an efficient simulation method based on adaptive importance sampling, which can automatically find the optimal proposal within the Gaussian family based on previous samples, to evaluate the probability of bit error…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-08 Xiongwen Ke , Houying Zhu , Kai Yi , Gaoning He , Ganghua Yang , Yu Guang Wang

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We present an algorithm for rigid body diffusion Monte Carlo with importance sampling, which is based on a rigorous short-time expansion of the Green's function for rotational motion in three dimensions. We show that this short-time…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Alexandra Viel , Mehul V. Patel , Parhat Niyaz , K. Birgitta Whaley