Related papers: Stochastic approach to epidemic spreading
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Our study is devoted to a four-compartment epidemic model of a constant population of independent random walkers. Each walker is in one of four compartments (S-susceptible, C-infected but not infectious (period of incubation), I-infected…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
We consider a slow-fast stochastic process where the slow component is a jump process on a measurable index set whose transition rates depend on the position of the fast component. Between the jumps, the fast component evolves according to…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
This paper studies an epidemic model with nonlocal dispersals. We focus on the influences of initial data and nonlocal dispersals on its spatial propagation. Here the initial data stand for the spatial concentrations of infectious agent and…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
Mathematical models of motility are often based on random-walk descriptions of discrete individuals that can move according to certain rules. It is usually the case that large masses concentrated in small regions of space have a great…