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Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…

Extreme events have low occurrence probabilities and display pronounced deviation from their average behaviour, such as earthquakes or power blackouts. Such extreme events occurring on the nodes of a complex network have been extensively…

Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…

Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

Aiming to estimate extreme precipitation forecast quantiles, we propose a nonparametric regression model that features a constant extreme value index. Using local linear quantile regression and an extrapolation technique from extreme value…

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…

In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…

Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…

The processes that generate rogue waves on the sea surface remain a mystery. Despite their different natures, the nonlinear bending waves generated in a thin elastic plate share some similarities with waves on the surface of the sea. For…

AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM's ability to simulate an extreme…

Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…

Rare events can potentially occur in many applications. When manifested as opportunities to be exploited, risks to be ameliorated, or certain features to be extracted, such events become of paramount significance. Due to their sporadic…

This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…

To account for volatile renewable energy supply, energy systems optimization problems require high temporal resolution. Many models use time-series clustering to find representative periods to reduce the amount of time-series input data and…

We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

The financial losses from extreme weather events can have a disastrous effect, often costing billions of pounds. While changes in the disposition of individual events is of importance to both the insurance and re-insurance industries, these…