Related papers: Rare event algorithm study of extreme warm summers…

Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully-resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on…

We study the hemispheric to continental scale regimes that lead to summertime heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere. By using a powerful data mining methodology - archetype analysis - we identify characteristic spatial patterns consisting of…

We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…

In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…

The increasing frequency of global climate extremes has significantly impacted the terrestrial carbon cycle. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation pose serious threats to ecosystem carbon…

Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental…

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

In Central Europe, the occurrence of different weather regimes (WRs) plays a major role in spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns. In the context of increasingly extreme summers, this study focuses on European summer WRs…

Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…

We consider the general problem of estimating probabilities which arise as a union of dependent events. We propose a flexible series of estimators for such probabilities, and describe variance reduction schemes applied to the proposed…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…