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We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Francesco Micheli , Tyler Summers , John Lygeros

High-throughput characterization often requires estimating parameters and model dimension from experimental data of limited quantity and quality. Such data may result in an ill-posed inverse problem, where multiple sets of parameters and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Abigail N. Poteshman , Jiwon Yun , Tim H. Taminiau , Giulia Galli

In this paper, we consider a new framework for particle filtering under model uncertainty that operates beyond the scope of Markovian switching systems. Specifically, we develop a novel particle filtering algorithm that applies to general…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-11 Yousef El-Laham , Liu Yang , Petar M. Djuric , Monica F. Bugallo

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

This paper deals with solving distributed optimization problems with equality constraints by a class of uncertain nonlinear heterogeneous dynamic multi-agent systems. It is assumed that each agent with an uncertain dynamic model has limited…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-28 Mohammad Saeed Sarafraz , Mohammad Saleh Tavazoei

In this paper we address the problem of uncertainty management for robust design, and verification of large dynamic networks whose performance is affected by an equally large number of uncertain parameters. Many such networks (e.g. power,…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-12 Amit Surana , Tuhin Sahai , Andrzej Banaszuk

The state space representation of active resident space objects can be posed in the form of a stochastic hybrid system. Satellite maneuvers may be accounted for according to control cost or heuristical considerations, yet it is possible to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-06 Guillermo Escribano , Manuel Sanjurjo-Rivo , Jan Siminski , Alejandro Pastor , Diego Escobar

In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-10 Vasily Vasilyev , Alexander Dobrovidov

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-25 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Nick Whiteley , Emma McCoy

The problem of determining the mathematical model of the dynamics of multi-dimensional control systems in the presence of noise under the condition that the correlation functions cannot be found. Known statistical dynamics of linear systems…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2013-01-29 V. N. Tibabishev

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters and output is a critical component in model-driven decision support systems for groundwater management. This paper presents a novel algorithmic approach which fuses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-26 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , David Moxey

A generic method for inferring a dynamical hidden Markov model from a time series is proposed. Under reasonable hypothesis, the model is updated in constant time whenever a new measurement arrives.

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Teodor Knapik

We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-04 Liwen Xue , Axel Finke , Adam M. Johansen

Computational mechanisms for uncertainty management must support interactive and incremental problem formulation, inference, hypothesis testing, and decision making. However, most current uncertainty inference systems concentrate primarily…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Bruce D'Ambrosio

We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Michel Mandjes , Brendan Patch , Neil Walton

Trust is a crucial factor affecting the adoption of machine learning (ML) models. Qualitative studies have revealed that end-users, particularly in the medical domain, need models that can express their uncertainty in decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-21 Andrew Houston , Georgina Cosma

We propose a novel approach to design a robust Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for constrained uncertain linear systems. The uncertain system is modeled as linear parameter varying with additive disturbance. Set bounds for the system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-11 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Ugo Rosolia , Yvonne R Stürz , Xiaojing Zhang , Francesco Borrelli

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-17 Roberto Colombi , Sabrina Giordano

We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-11 Felix L. Wolf , Griselda Deelstra , Lech A. Grzelak

Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Carolina Valani Cavalcante , Kelly Cristina Mota Gonçalves