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We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…

adap-org · Physics 2015-06-30 M. E. J. Newman , R. G. Palmer

Uncertainty reduction is vital for improving system reliability and reducing risks. To identify the best target for uncertainty reduction, uncertainty importance measure is commonly used to prioritize the significance of input variable…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-12 Shi-Shun Chen , Xiao-Yang Li

We present parton distribution functions which include a quantitative estimate of its uncertainties. The parton distribution functions are optimized with respect to deep inelastic proton data, expressing the uncertainties as a density…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 Walter T. Giele , Stephane A. Keller , David A. Kosower

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-28 Nick James , Max Menzies

We derive the asymptotic distribution of ordinal-pattern frequencies under weak dependence conditions and investigate the long-run covariance matrix not only analytically for moving-average, Gaussian, and the novel generalized coin-tossing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Angelika Silbernagel , Christian Weiß

In this study an attempt has been made to propose a way to develop new distribution. For this purpose, we need only idea about distribution function. Some important statistical properties of the new distribution like moments, cumulants,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-30 Brijesh P. Singh , Utpal Dhar Das

Various notions of fluctuations exist depending on the way one chooses to measure them. We discuss two extreme cases (continuous measurement versus long inter-measurement times) and we see their relation with entropy production and with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-05 C. Maes , K. Netocny

We review the alternative proposals introduced recently in the literature to update the standard formula to estimate the uncertainty on the mean of repeated measurements, and we compare their performances on synthetic examples with normal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-09-13 Pascal Pernot , Jean-Paul Berthet

The notion of utility maximising entropy (u-entropy) of a probability density, which was introduced and studied by Slomczynski and Zastawniak (Ann. Prob 32 (2004) 2261-2285, arXiv:math.PR/0410115 v1), is extended in two directions. First,…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Grzegorz Harańczyk , Wojciech Słomczyński , Tomasz Zastawniak

This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Antoine de Mathelin , François Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

Elastic turbulence can lead to to increased flow resistance, mixing and heat transfer. Its control -- either suppression or promotion -- has significant potential, and there is a concerted ongoing effort by the community to improve our…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-12-05 Jack R. C. King , Robert J. Poole , Cláudio P. Fonte , Steven J. Lind

It is supposed that the exponential multiplier in the method of the non-equilibrium statistical operator (Zubarev`s approach) can be considered as a distribution density of the past lifetime of the system, and can be replaced by an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-26 V. V. Ryazanov

How to find unknown distributions is questioned in many pieces of research. There are several ways to figure them out, but the main question is which acts more reasonably than others. In this paper, we focus on the maximum entropy principle…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-07-26 Seyedeh Azadeh Fallah Mortezanejad

We study the notion of approximate entropy within the framework of network theory. Approximate entropy is an uncertainty measure originally proposed in the context of dynamical systems and time series. We firstly define a purely structural…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2013-05-30 James West , Lucas Lacasa , Simone Severini , Andrew Teschendorff

We show how the shared information between the past and future---the excess entropy---derives from the components of directional information stored in the present---the predictive and retrodictive causal states. A detailed proof allows us…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-12-03 James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

We use point processes theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of all upper order statistics for observations collected at renewal times. As a corollary, we obtain limiting theorems for corresponding extremal processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Bojan Basrak , Drago Špoljarić

We introduce a variant of the R\'enyi entropy definition that aligns it with the well-known H\"older mean: in the new formulation, the r-th order R\'enyi Entropy is the logarithm of the inverse of the r-th order H\"older mean. This brings…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Francisco José Valverde-Albacete , Carmen Peláez-Moreno

The increasing recognition of the association between adverse human health conditions and many environmental substances as well as processes has led to the need to monitor them. An important problem that arises in environmental statistics…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-05 Yu Wang , Nhu D. Le , James V. Zidek

We use the $f-divergence$ also called relative entropy as a measure of diversity between probability densities and review its basic properties. In the sequence we define a few objects which capture relevant information from the sample of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-20 A. R. Baigorri , C. R. Goncalves , P. A. A. Resende

Shannon Entropy is the preeminent tool for measuring the level of uncertainty (and conversely, information content) in a random variable. In the field of communications, entropy can be used to express the information content of given…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Bill Kay , Audun Myers , Thad Boydston , Emily Ellwein , Cameron Mackenzie , Iliana Alvarez , Erik Lentz