Related papers: Using evidence to make decisions

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

The ratio of Bayesian evidences is a popular tool in cosmology to compare different models. There are however several issues with this method: Bayes' ratio depends on the prior even in the limit of non-informative priors, and Jeffrey's…

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…

When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…

Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of…

Evidence in probabilistic reasoning may be 'hard' or 'soft', that is, it may be of yes/no form, or it may involve a strength of belief, in the unit interval [0, 1]. Reasoning with soft, [0, 1]-valued evidence is important in many situations…

Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…

Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base…

Bayes's rule deals with hard evidence, that is, we can calculate the probability of event $A$ occuring given that event $B$ has occurred. Soft evidence, on the other hand, involves a degree of uncertainty about whether event $B$ has…

Both the Bayes factor and the relative belief ratio satisfy the principle of evidence and so can be seen to be valid measures of statistical evidence. Certainly Bayes factors are regularly employed. The question then is: which of these…

Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

This paper considers the problem of model selection within the context of finite element model updating. Given that a number of FEM updating models, with different updating parameters, can be designed, this paper proposes using the Bayesian…

For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…

This paper develops a Bayesian approach for assessing equivalence and non-inferiority hypotheses in two-arm trials using relative belief ratios. A relative belief ratio is a measure of statistical evidence and can indicate evidence either…

We investigate how the use of bullet comparison algorithms and demonstrative evidence may affect juror perceptions of reliability, credibility, and understanding of expert witnesses and presented evidence. The use of statistical methods in…

This essay looks at decision-making with interval-valued probability measures. Existing decision methods have either supplemented expected utility methods with additional criteria of optimality, or have attempted to supplement the…

Some large scale inference problems are considered based on using the relative belief ratio as a measure of statistical evidence. This approach is applied to the multiple testing problem. A particular application of this is concerned with…