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Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing…

The accurate estimation of students' grades in future courses is important as it can inform the selection of next term's courses and create personalized degree pathways to facilitate successful and timely graduation. This paper presents…

This paper studies efficient data management and timely information dissemination for real-time monitoring of an $N$-state Markov process, enabling accurate state estimation and reliable actuation decisions. First, we analyze the Age of…

Graduation and dropout rates have always been a serious consideration for educational institutions and students. High dropout rates negatively impact both the lives of individual students and institutions. To address this problem, this…

Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) is one of the most successful meta-learning techniques for few-shot learning. It uses gradient descent to learn commonalities between various tasks, enabling the model to learn the meta-initialization of…

Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm, is quite inefficient in high dimensions because of its abysmally slow acceptance rate. The slow acceptance rate results from the fact that RWMH separately updates each coordinate of the…

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is a widely used method for estimating the average fidelity of gates implemented on a quantum computing device. The stochastic error of the average gate fidelity estimated by RB depends on the sampling strategy…

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform…

Various studies have shown that students tend to get higher marks when assessed through coursework based assessment methods which include either modules that are fully assessed through coursework or a mixture of coursework and examinations…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

To determine the effect of nonradiative excitation energy transfer on the fluorescence of a rigid multicomponent solution, a new analytical method was developed by treating this transfer as a time-resolved Markov chain (TRMC). In the TRMC…

We present UniRank, a multi-agent LLM pipeline that estimates university positions across global ranking systems using only publicly available bibliometric data from OpenAlex and Semantic Scholar. The system employs a three-stage…

This paper considers a Markov-modulated duplication-deletion random graph where at each time instant, one node can either join or leave the network; the probabilities of joining or leaving evolve according to the realization of a finite…

In this work, we adapt the rank aggregation framework for the discovery of optimal course sequences at the university level. Each student provides a partial ranking of the courses taken throughout his or her undergraduate career. We compute…

In the analysis of Markov chains and processes, it is sometimes convenient to replace an unbounded state space with a "truncated" bounded state space. When such a replacement is made, one often wants to know whether the equilibrium behavior…

We introduce a new framework that performs decision-making in reinforcement learning (RL) as an iterative reasoning process. We model agent behavior as the steady-state distribution of a parameterized reasoning Markov chain (RMC), optimized…

The Pseudo-Marginal (PM) algorithm is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used to sample from a target distribution when its density is inaccessible, but can be estimated with a non-negative unbiased estimator. Its performance…

We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…

We study the kernel estimator of the transition density of bifurcating Markov chains. Under some ergodic and regularity properties, we prove that this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Next, in the numerical studies, we…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…