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Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 Stephen Bates , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Damian Machlanski , Spyridon Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

We present a methodology for model evaluation and selection where the sampling mechanism violates the i.i.d. assumption. Our methodology involves a formulation of the bias between the standard Cross-Validation (CV) estimator and the mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Oren Yuval , Saharon Rosset

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Nitai D. Mukhopadhyay

In the regression setting, given a set of hyper-parameters, a model-estimation procedure constructs a model from training data. The optimal hyper-parameters that minimize generalization error of the model are usually unknown. In practice…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Jean Feng , Noah Simon

Let $Y$ be a Gaussian vector whose components are independent with a common unknown variance. We consider the problem of estimating the mean $\mu$ of $Y$ by model selection. More precisely, we start with a collection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-03 Yannick Baraud , Christophe Giraud , Sylvie Huet

We introduce a generic estimator for the false discovery rate of any model selection procedure, in common statistical modeling settings including the Gaussian linear model, Gaussian graphical model, and model-X setting. We prove that our…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Yixiang Luo , William Fithian , Lihua Lei

Cross-validation is a standard tool for obtaining a honest assessment of the performance of a prediction model. The commonly used version repeatedly splits data, trains the prediction model on the training set, evaluates the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Tianyu Pan , Vincent Z. Yu , Viswanath Devanarayan , Lu Tian

The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-23 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

We consider nonlinear mixed effects models including high-dimensional covariates to model individual parameters variability. The objective is to identify relevant covariates among a large set under sparsity assumption and to estimate model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Antoine Caillebotte , Estelle Kuhn , Sarah Lemler

We develop tools to do valid post-selective inference for a family of model selection procedures, including choosing a model via cross-validated Lasso. The tools apply universally when the following random vectors are jointly asymptotically…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Jelena Markovic , Lucy Xia , Jonathan Taylor

Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Zhengyan Wan , Fang Fang , Binyan Jiang

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-04 Hado van Hasselt

The non-parametric estimation of average causal effects in observational studies often relies on controlling for confounding covariates through smoothing regression methods such as kernel, splines or local polynomial regression. Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-20 Jenny Häggström , Xavier de Luna

We propose to address the common problem of linear estimation in linear statistical models by using a model selection approach via penalization. Depending then on the framework in which the linear statistical model is considered namely the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Ikhlef Bechar

Model selection strategies have been routinely employed to determine a model for data analysis in statistics, and further study and inference then often proceed as though the selected model were the true model that were known a priori. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Priyam Mitra , Heng Lian , Ritwik Mitra , Hua Liang , Min-ge Xie

In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-11 Wataru Yoshida , Kei Hirose