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Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used as models for functions, time series, and spatial fields, but they are computationally infeasible for large datasets. Focusing on the typical setting of modeling data as a GP plus an additive noise…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Matthias Katzfuss , Joseph Guinness

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled Bayesian framework for uncertainty estimation, but their computational complexity severely limits scalability to large datasets. We propose SIKA-GP, which accelerates GP inference using sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Wenyuan Zhao , Rui Tuo , Chao Tian

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) compose GP layers to warp inputs, enabling improved emulation of computer models with nonstationary input-output behavior compared with ordinary GPs. In contrast to GPs, the predictive uncertainty for DGP…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yiming Yang , Deyu Ming , Serge Guillas

Despite a large corpus of recent work on scaling up Gaussian processes, a stubborn trade-off between computational speed, prediction and uncertainty quantification accuracy, and customizability persists. This is because the vast majority of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Marcus M. Noack , Mark D. Risser , Hengrui Luo , Vardaan Tekriwal , Ronald J. Pandolfi

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Linfeng Liu , Liping Liu

We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-09 Marko Järvenpää , Michael Gutmann , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Louis C. Tiao , Vincent Dutordoir , Victor Picheny

Deep geological repositories are critical for the long-term storage of hazardous materials, where understanding the mechanical behavior of emplacement drifts is essential for safety assurance. This study presents a surrogate modeling…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely used to model dependencies in spatial statistics and machine learning. However, exact inference is computationally intractable for GP regression, with a time complexity of $O(n^3)$. The Vecchia…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Botond Szabo , Yichen Zhu

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-20 Manuel Schürch , Dario Azzimonti , Alessio Benavoli , Marco Zaffalon

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used probabilistic machine learning method with implicit uncertainty characterization for stochastic function approximation, stochastic modeling, and analyzing real-world measurements of nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Mark D. Risser , Marcus M. Noack , Hengrui Luo , Ronald Pandolfi

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Although machine learning is increasingly applied in control approaches, only few methods guarantee certifiable safety, which is necessary for real world applications. These approaches typically rely on well-understood learning algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Armin Lederer , Markus Kessler , Sandra Hirche

We here consider the subset simulation method which approaches a failure event using a decreasing sequence of nested intermediate failure events. The method resembles importance sampling, which actively explores a probability space by…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-16 Kenan Šehić , Mirza Karamehmedović

Complex computer codes are often too time expensive to be directly used to perform uncertainty, sensitivity, optimization and robustness analyses. A widely accepted method to circumvent this problem consists in replacing cpu-time expensive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-25 Bertrand Iooss , Amandine Marrel

A multi-output Gaussian process (GP) is introduced as a model for the joint posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of set of models and/or experts, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Oscar Oelrich , Mattias Villani

Surface roughness plays a critical role and has effects in, e.g. fluid dynamics or contact mechanics. For example, to evaluate fluid behavior at different roughness properties, real-world or numerical experiments are performed. Numerical…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-07 Arsalan Jawaid , Jörg Seewig

We study in this paper two classes of experimental designs, support points and projected support points, which can provide robust and effective emulation of computer experiments with Gaussian processes. These designs have two important…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Simon Mak , V. Roshan Joseph

Surrogate models for computational simulations are input-output approximations that allow computationally intensive analyses, such as uncertainty propagation and inference, to be performed efficiently. When a simulation output does not…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-08-05 Alex A. Gorodetsky , Youssef M. Marzouk

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a robust paradigm for Bayesian deep learning. In DGPs, a set of sparse integration locations called inducing points are selected to approximate the posterior distribution of the model. This is done to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Jian Xu , Delu Zeng , John Paisley