Related papers: A comprehensive spatial-temporal infection model
In this paper, we propose and analyze a reaction-diffusion susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic patch model. The individuals are assumed to reside in different patches, where they are able to move inside and among the patches.…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
An SIR model with the coinfection of the two infectious agents in a single host population is considered. The model includes the environmental carry capacity in each class of population. A special case of this model is analyzed and several…
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Predicting Pandemic evolution involves complex modeling challenges, often requiring detailed discrete mathematics executed on large volumes of epidemiological data. Differential equations have the advantage of offering smooth, well-behaved…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…
With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…
Virus transmission from person to person is an emergency event facing the global public. Early detection and isolation of potentially susceptible crowds can effectively control the epidemic of its disease. Existing metrics can not correctly…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…
We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Partial differential equation (PDE) models for infectious disease have received renewed interest in recent years. Most models of this type extend classical compartmental formulations with additional terms accounting for spatial dynamics,…