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This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam M. Sykulski , Sofia C. Olhede , Jonathan M. Lilly , Eric Danioux

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

This paper investigates a clustering instability of a freely falling granular jet composed of 100 micron glass spheres. The granular flow out of a circular nozzle starts out spatially uniform and then, further downstream, breaks up into…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-08-16 Matthias E. Möbius

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Wuqiushi Yao , Or Hadas , Yohai Kaspi

Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 F J Tapiador , R Verdejo

Motion segmentation is a fundamental problem in computer vision and is crucial in various applications such as robotics, autonomous driving and action recognition. Recently, spectral clustering based methods have shown impressive results on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Yuxiang Huang , John Zelek

Outcomes of data-driven AI models cannot be assumed to be always correct. To estimate the uncertainty in these outcomes, the uncertainty wrapper framework has been proposed, which considers uncertainties related to model fit, input quality,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Pascal Gerber , Lisa Jöckel , Michael Kläs

Spectral clustering is one of the most prominent clustering approaches. The distance-based similarity is the most widely used method for spectral clustering. However, people have already noticed that this is not suitable for multi-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-11 Hengrui Wang , Yubo Zhang , Mingzhi Chen , Tong Yang

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Robert Sisneros , Tushar M. Athawale , David Pugmire , Kenneth Moreland

Most current clustering based anomaly detection methods use scoring schema and thresholds to classify anomalies. These methods are often tailored to target specific data sets with "known" number of clusters. The paper provides a streaming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-04 Sreelekha Guggilam , Syed M. A. Zaidi , Varun Chandola , Abani K. Patra

Clustering is an unsupervised technique of Data Mining. It means grouping similar objects together and separating the dissimilar ones. Each object in the data set is assigned a class label in the clustering process using a distance measure.…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2011-10-13 Parul Agarwal , M. Afshar Alam , Ranjit Biswas

This study presents a Bayesian spectral density approach for identification and uncertainty quantification of flutter derivatives of bridge sections utilizing buffeting displacement responses, where the wind tunnel test is conducted in…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-19 Xiaolei Chu , Wei Cui , Peng Liu , Lin Zhao , Yaojun Ge

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-25 Subhankar Ghosh , Shuai An , Arun Sharma , Jayant Gupta , Shashi Shekhar , Aneesh Subramanian

Clustering is a popular machine learning technique for data mining that can process and analyze datasets to automatically reveal sample distribution patterns. Since the ubiquitous categorical data naturally lack a well-defined metric space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Yiqun Zhang , Mingjie Zhao , Hong Jia , Yang Lu , Mengke Li , Yiu-ming Cheung

Clustering analysis identifies samples as groups based on either their mutual closeness or homogeneity. In order to detect clusters in arbitrary shapes, a novel and generic solution based on boundary erosion is proposed. The clusters are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-04-16 Cheng-Hao Deng , Wan-Lei Zhao

Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-02-23 Andrew J. Majda , Di Qi

In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is crucial for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners require reliable uncertainty estimates of the predicted behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Aron Distelzweig , Andreas Look , Eitan Kosman , Faris Janjoš , Jörg Wagner , Abhinav Valada

Accurate regional ocean forecasting requires models that are both computationally efficient and capable of representing predictive uncertainty. This work investigates ensemble learning strategies for sea surface temperature (SST)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Alejandro J. González-Santana , Giovanny A. Cuervo-Londoño , Javier Sánchez

Spatial clustering of identical particles falling through a turbulent flow enhances the collision rate between the falling particles, an important problem in aerosol science. We analyse this problem using perturbation theory in a…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-18 K. Gustavsson , S. Vajedi , B. Mehlig

Detecting concept drift in high-speed data streams remains challenging, particularly when models must operate on unlabeled data and avoid false alarms caused by benign shifts. While disagreement-based uncertainty has shown promise in neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Lara Sá Neves , Afonso Lourenço , Lizy K. John , Goreti Marreiros