Related papers: A Data-driven Understanding of COVID-19 Dynamics U…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
We have devised a data-driven framework for uncovering hidden control strategies used by an evolutionary system described by an evolutionary probability distribution. This innovative framework enables deciphering of the concealed mechanisms…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Norden E. Huang, Fangli Qiao and Ka Kit Tung presented a data-driven model for the COVID-19 epidemic in which the relevant functions depend on a set of seven parameters obtained from a statistical analysis of the available data. These…
Since the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in December 2019, studies have been addressing diverse aspects in relation to COVID-19 and Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC 202012/01) such as potential symptoms and predictive tools.…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since then, the world has been facing a deadly pandemic caused by it. This ongoing pandemic has had a significant effect on different aspects of societies. The uncertainty…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and…
This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in term of contact dynamics.…
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors…
Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…
The prediction of the behavior of the disease, the level of affectation in a population and the ways to control it are the most important aspects studied by epidemiology using tools such as historical data and mathematical models. So, our…
The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…
Analysing and understanding the transmission and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory to be able to design the best social and medical policies, foresee their outcomes and deal with all the subsequent socio-economic effects. We…