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The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Timo Dimitriadis , Yannick Hoga

We propose an iterative gradient-based algorithm to efficiently solve the portfolio selection problem with multiple spectral risk constraints. Since the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a special case of the spectral risk measure, our…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-26 Carlos Abad , Garud Iyengar

In this work, we study the sample complexity problem of risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a generative model, where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance level $\tau$ at each step, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Zilong Deng , Simon Khan , Shaofeng Zou

In this paper, we address variational inequalities (VI) with a finite-sum structure. We introduce a novel single-loop stochastic variance-reduced algorithm, incorporating the Bregman distance function, and establish an optimal convergence…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Zeinab Alizadeh , Erfan Yazdandoost Hamedani , Afrooz Jalilzadeh

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-30 Si Yi Meng , Robert M. Gower

We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-04 Matthew J. Holland , El Mehdi Haress

Variational inference (VI) is a central tool in modern machine learning, used to approximate an intractable target density by optimising over a tractable family of distributions. As the variational family cannot typically represent the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Daniel Marks , Dario Paccagnan , Mark van der Wilk

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-12 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani

Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Behzad Kianian , Jung In Kim , Jason P. Fine , Limin Peng

We incorporate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) quantity into a generalized class of Pickands estimators. By introducing CVaR, the newly developed estimators not only retain the desirable properties of consistency, location, and scale…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-25 Yizhou Li , Pawel Polak

In this paper, we propose two new solution schemes to solve the stochastic strongly monotone variational inequality problems: the stochastic extra-point solution scheme and the stochastic extra-momentum solution scheme. The first one is a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Kevin Huang , Shuzhong Zhang

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-30 M. Usaid Awan , Yameng Liu , Marco Morucci , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

We propose a stochastic approximation method for approximating the efficient frontier of chance-constrained nonlinear programs. Our approach is based on a bi-objective viewpoint of chance-constrained programs that seeks solutions on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Rohit Kannan , James Luedtke

A sequential quadratic programming method is designed for solving general smooth nonlinear stochastic optimization problems subject to expectation equality constraints. We consider the setting where the objective and constraint function…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Haoming Shen , Yang Zeng , Baoyu Zhou

Stochastic Approximation has been a prominent set of tools for solving problems with noise and uncertainty. Increasingly, it becomes important to solve optimization problems wherein there is noise in both a set of constraints that a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Francisco Facchinei , Vyacheslav Kungurtsev

An algorithm is proposed, analyzed, and tested experimentally for solving stochastic optimization problems in which the decision variables are constrained to satisfy equations defined by deterministic, smooth, and nonlinear functions. It is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-09 Frank E. Curtis , Daniel P. Robinson , Baoyu Zhou

Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Zhaowen Wang , Yutao Liu , Deyuan Li

Machine learning (ML) models used in prediction and classification tasks may display performance disparities across population groups determined by sensitive attributes (e.g., race, sex, age). We consider the problem of evaluating the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Lucas Monteiro Paes , Ananda Theertha Suresh , Alex Beutel , Flavio P. Calmon , Ahmad Beirami

We propose a fully practical numerical scheme for the simulation of the stochastic total variation flow (STFV). The approximation is based on a stable time-implicit finite element space-time approximation of a regularized STVF equation. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-05 Ľubomír Baňas , Martin Ondreját

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference. Despite empirical success, the convergence of this method is still not fully understood. In this work, we define and study…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Thomas Guilmeau , Hadrien Hendrikx , Florence Forbes
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