Related papers: Disappearing errors in a conversion model

We investigate a dynamical model of opinion formation in which an individual's opinion is influenced by interactions with a group of other agents. We introduce a bias towards one of the opinions in a manner not considered earlier to the…

The dynamics of popularity in online media are driven by a combination of endogenous spreading mechanisms and response to exogenous shocks including news and events. However, little is known about the dependence of temporal patterns of…

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete…

Imputation methods play a critical role in enhancing the quality of practical time-series data, which often suffer from pervasive missing values. Recently, diffusion-based generative imputation methods have demonstrated remarkable success…

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

This is a brief "proof of concept" article that shows nonlocal diffusion is well suited to the study of pattern formation and the particular application of public sentiment. We use a nonlocal reaction-diffusion equation to model the…

We present a general prediction scheme of failure times based on updating continuously with time the probability for failure of the global system, conditioned on the information revealed on the pre-existing idiosyncratic realization of the…

The dynamics of spreading of the minority opinion in public debates (a reform proposal, a behavior change, a military retaliation) is studied using a diffusion reaction model. People move by discrete step on a landscape of random geometry…

Understanding how an individual changes its attitude, belief, and opinion due to other people's social influences is vital because of its wide implications. A core methodology that is used to study the change of attitude under social…

We introduce a heterogeneous network structure into the Bass diffusion model, in order to study the diffusion times of innovation or information in networks with a scale-free structure, typical of regions where diffusion is sensitive to…

Predictive statistical mechanics is a form of inference from available data, without additional assumptions, for predicting reproducible phenomena. By applying it to systems with Hamiltonian dynamics, a problem of predicting the macroscopic…

On-line communities offer a great opportunity to investigate human dynamics, because much information about individuals is registered in databases. In this paper, based on data statistics of online comments on Blog posts, we first present…

A microscopic dynamic model is here constructed and analyzed, describing the evolution of the income distribution in the presence of taxation and redistribution in a society in which also tax evasion and auditing processes occur. The focus…

The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an…

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

This paper introduces a class of non-linear and continuous-time opinion dynamics model with additive noise and state dependent interaction rates between agents. The model features interaction rates which are proportional to a negative power…

Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobility and behaviour, varying disease transmissibility due to…

This work proposes a hybrid model that combines the Galam model of opinion dynamics with the Bass diffusion model used in technology adoption on Barabasi-Albert complex networks. The main idea is to advance a version of the Bass model that…

Transformer models have become increasingly popular in financial applications, yet their potential risk making and biases remain under-explored. The purpose of this work is to audit the reliance of the model on volatile data for…

In some social networks, the opinion forming is based on its own and neighbors' (initial) opinions, whereas the evolution of the individual opinions is also influenced by the individual's past opinions in the real world. Unlike existing…