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In the United States and elsewhere, risk assessment algorithms are being used to help inform criminal justice decision-makers. A common intent is to forecast an offender's ``future dangerousness.'' Such algorithms have been correctly…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-10 Richard A. Berk , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In criminal justice risk forecasting, one can prove that it is impossible to optimize accuracy and fairness at the same time. One can also prove that it is impossible optimize at once all of the usual group definitions of fairness. In the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-28 Richard A. Berk , Ayya A. Elzarka

Risk assessments to help inform criminal justice decisions have been used in the United States since the 1920s. Over the past several years, statistical learning risk algorithms have been introduced amid much controversy about fairness,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Arun K. Kuchibhotla , Richard A. Berk

Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision making. Yet different, equally-justifiable choices when developing, testing, and deploying…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Travis Greene , Galit Shmueli , Jan Fell , Ching-Fu Lin , Han-Wei Liu

Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-27 Kristian Lum , James Johndrow

Deep learning crime predictive tools use past crime data and additional behavioral datasets to forecast future crimes. Nevertheless, these tools have been shown to suffer from unfair predictions across minority racial and ethnic groups.…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Jiahui Wu , Vanessa Frias-Martinez

Algorithmic fairness has grown rapidly as a research area, yet key concepts remain unsettled, especially in criminal justice. We review group, individual, and process fairness and map the conditions under which they conflict. We then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Shaolong Wu , James Blume , Geshi Yeung

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

Early studies of risk assessment algorithms used in criminal justice revealed widespread racial biases. In response, machine learning researchers have developed methods for fairness, many of which rely on equalizing empirical metrics across…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-15 Rajiv Movva

Decision makers increasingly rely on algorithmic risk scores to determine access to binary treatments including bail, loans, and medical interventions. In these settings, we reconcile two fairness criteria that were previously shown to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-09 Claire Lazar Reich , Suhas Vijaykumar

Algorithms are now regularly used to decide whether defendants awaiting trial are too dangerous to be released back into the community. In some cases, black defendants are substantially more likely than white defendants to be incorrectly…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2017-06-13 Sam Corbett-Davies , Emma Pierson , Avi Feller , Sharad Goel , Aziz Huq

Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing or augmenting human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing,…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-16 James E. Johndrow , Kristian Lum

Predictive algorithms are now used to help distribute a large share of our society's resources and sanctions, such as healthcare, loans, criminal detentions, and tax audits. Under the right circumstances, these algorithms can improve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Alex Chohlas-Wood , Madison Coots , Sharad Goel , Julian Nyarko

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

The rapid growth of data in the recent years has led to the development of complex learning algorithms that are often used to make decisions in real world. While the positive impact of the algorithms has been tremendous, there is a need to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Ankit Kulshrestha , Ilya Safro

Objectives: Discussions of fairness in criminal justice risk assessments typically lack conceptual precision. Rhetoric too often substitutes for careful analysis. In this paper, we seek to clarify the tradeoffs between different kinds of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk , Hoda Heidari , Shahin Jabbari , Michael Kearns , Aaron Roth

Currently, there is uncertainty surrounding the merits of open-source versus proprietary algorithm development. Though justification in favor of each exists, we argue that open-source algorithm development should be the standard in highly…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-13 Philip D. Waggoner , Alec Macmillen

Existing approaches to algorithmic fairness aim to ensure equitable outcomes if human decision-makers comply perfectly with algorithmic decisions. However, perfect compliance with the algorithm is rarely a reality or even a desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

As algorithms are increasingly used to make important decisions that affect human lives, ranging from social benefit assignment to predicting risk of criminal recidivism, concerns have been raised about the fairness of algorithmic decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-28 Nina Grgić-Hlača , Elissa M. Redmiles , Krishna P. Gummadi , Adrian Weller

The use of machine learning to guide clinical decision making has the potential to worsen existing health disparities. Several recent works frame the problem as that of algorithmic fairness, a framework that has attracted considerable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-16 Stephen R. Pfohl , Agata Foryciarz , Nigam H. Shah
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