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We propose data thinning, an approach for splitting an observation into two or more independent parts that sum to the original observation, and that follow the same distribution as the original observation, up to a (known) scaling of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-22 Anna Neufeld , Ameer Dharamshi , Lucy L. Gao , Daniela Witten

In this paper, we address the problem of testing exchangeability of a sequence of random variables, $X_1, X_2,\cdots$. This problem has been studied under the recently popular framework of testing by betting. But the mapping of testing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Aytijhya Saha , Aaditya Ramdas

Combining p-values from independent statistical tests is a popular approach to meta-analysis, particularly when the data underlying the tests are either no longer available or are difficult to combine. A diverse range of p-value combination…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-15 Nicholas Heard , Patrick Rubin-Delanchy

There is a useful counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, called conformal e-prediction. Conformal prediction can serve as basis for testing the assumption of exchangeability, leading to conformal testing. Similarly, conformal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-05 Vladimir Vovk , Ilia Nouretdinov , Alex Gammerman

Combining individual p-values to aggregate multiple small effects has a long-standing interest in statistics, dating back to the classic Fisher's combination test. In modern large-scale data analysis, correlation and sparsity are common…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-30 Yaowu Liu , Jun Xie

This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Vladimir Vovk

"How much is my data worth?" is an increasingly common question posed by organizations and individuals alike. An answer to this question could allow, for instance, fairly distributing profits among multiple data contributors and determining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Ruoxi Jia , David Dao , Boxin Wang , Frances Ann Hubis , Nick Hynes , Nezihe Merve Gurel , Bo Li , Ce Zhang , Dawn Song , Costas Spanos

In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-27 Youngjin Cho , Yili Hong , Pang Du

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

The problem of combining p-values is an old and fundamental one, and the classic assumption of independence is often violated or unverifiable in many applications. There are many well-known rules that can combine a set of arbitrarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 Matteo Gasparin , Ruodu Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper we use e-values in the context of multiple hypothesis testing assuming that the base tests produce independent, or sequential, e-values. Our simulation and empirical studies and theoretical considerations suggest that, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-14 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

P-value functions are modern statistical tools that unify effect estimation and hypothesis testing and can provide alternative point and interval estimates compared to standard meta-analysis methods, using any of the many $p$-value…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Leonhard Held , Felix Hofmann , Samuel Pawel

Data sharing barriers are paramount challenges arising from multicenter clinical studies where multiple data sources are stored in a distributed fashion at different local study sites. Particularly in the case of time-to-event analysis when…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-10 Mengtong Hu , Xu Shi , Peter X. -K. Song

Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-04 Sebastian Arnold , Alexander Henzi , Johanna F. Ziegel

We propose a methodology for studying the performance of common splitting methods through semidefinite programming. We prove tightness of the methodology and demonstrate its value by presenting two applications of it. First, we use the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Ernest K. Ryu , Adrien B. Taylor , Carolina Bergeling , Pontus Giselsson

Selective inference is a subfield of statistics that enables valid inference after selection of a data-dependent question. In this paper, we introduce selectively dominant p-values, a class of p-values that allow practitioners to easily…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-22 Anav Sood

We study how to combine p-values and e-values, and design multiple testing procedures where both p-values and e-values are available for every hypothesis. Our results provide a new perspective on multiple testing with data-driven weights:…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Ruodu Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 Neil Dey , Ryan Martin , Jonathan P. Williams

Suppose we observe a random vector $X$ from some distribution $P$ in a known family with unknown parameters. We ask the following question: when is it possible to split $X$ into two parts $f(X)$ and $g(X)$ such that neither part is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-12 James Leiner , Boyan Duan , Larry Wasserman , Aaditya Ramdas

Replicability is central to scientific progress, and the partial conjunction (PC) hypothesis testing framework provides an objective tool to quantify it across disciplines. Existing PC methods assume independent studies. Yet many modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Monitirtha Dey , Trambak Banerjee , Prajamitra Bhuyan , Arunabha Majumdar