Related papers: Estimating conditional probabilities of historical…
The advent of modern computers has added an increased emphasis on channeling computational power and statistical methods into digital humanities. Including increased statistical rigor in history poses unique challenges due to the inherent…
We study a density-dependent Markov jump process describing a population where each individual is characterized by a type, and reproduces at rates depending both on its type and on the population type distribution. We are interested in the…
Multiple systems estimation is a key approach for quantifying hidden populations such as the number of victims of modern slavery. The UK Government published an estimate of 10,000 to 13,000 victims, constructed by the present author, as…
Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…
This paper deals into the long-term behavior of subordinated critical branching processes with migration. We focus on scenarios where emigration is the dominant factor and introduce additional randomness in timing through a subordination…
Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…
In many developing countries, half the population lives in rural locations, where access to essentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to…
We consider excursions for a class of stochastic processes describing a population of discrete individuals experiencing density-limited growth, such that the population has a finite carrying capacity and behaves qualitatively like the…
Political regimes have been changing throughout human history. After the apparent triumph of liberal democracies at the end of the twentieth century, Francis Fukuyama and others have been arguing that humankind is approaching an `end of…
We consider a broad class of continuous-time two-type population size-dependent Markov Branching Processes. The offspring distribution can depend on the current (alive) and total (dead and alive) populations. Using stochastic approximation…
A population has two types of individuals, each occupying an island. One of those, where individuals of type 1 live, offers a variable environment. Type 2 individuals dwell on the other island, in a constant environment. Only one-way…
We study the problem of estimating latent population flows from aggregated count data. This problem arises when individual trajectories are not available due to privacy issues or measurement fidelity. Instead, the aggregated observations…
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
The study of human mobility is both of fundamental importance and of great potential value. For example, it can be leveraged to facilitate efficient city planning and improve prevention strategies when faced with epidemics. The newfound…
We provide a probabilistic approach to modeling the movements of subjects through multiple stages, with "stays" or survival at each stage for a random length of time, and ending at a desired final stage. We use conditional Markov chains…
Multiple systems estimation strategies have recently been applied to quantify hard-to-reach populations, particularly when estimating the number of victims of human trafficking and modern slavery. In such contexts, it is not uncommon to see…
We consider a birth and death process in which death is due to both `natural death' and to competition between individuals, modelled as a quadratic function of population size. The resulting `logistic branching process' has been proposed as…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…