Related papers: Unbiased estimator for the variance of the leave-o…
It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…
Cross-validation can be used to measure a model's predictive accuracy for the purpose of model comparison, averaging, or selection. Standard leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) requires that the observation model can be factorized into…
We compute a variance lower bound for unbiased estimators in specified statistical models. The construction of the bound is related to the original Cram\'er-Rao bound, although it does not require the differentiability of the model.…
Standard practice obtains an unbiased variance estimator by dividing by $N-1$ rather than $N$. Yet if only half the data are used to compute the mean, dividing by $N$ can still yield an unbiased estimator. We show that an alternative mean…
Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…
One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…
For linear models that may have asymmetric errors, we study variable selection by cross-validation. The data are split into training and validation sets, with the number of observations in the validation set much larger than in the training…
Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…
We propose leave-out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An…
Several interesting generative learning algorithms involve a complex probability distribution over many random variables, involving intractable normalization constants or latent variable normalization. Some of them may even not have an…
We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…
We consider unbiased estimation of a sparse nonrandom vector corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. We show that while there are infinitely many unbiased estimators for this problem, none of them has uniformly minimum variance.…
Comparison of competing statistical models is an essential part of psychological research. From a Bayesian perspective, various approaches to model comparison and selection have been proposed in the literature. However, the applicability of…
When data are clustered, common practice has become to do OLS and use an estimator of the covariance matrix of the OLS estimator that comes close to unbiasedness. In this paper we derive an estimator that is unbiased when the random-effects…
In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…
We study an unbiased estimator for the density of a sum of random variables that are simulated from a computer model. A numerical study on examples with copula dependence is conducted where the proposed estimator performs favourably in…
We study a linear high-dimensional regression model in a semi-supervised setting, where for many observations only the vector of covariates $X$ is given with no response $Y$. We do not make any sparsity assumptions on the vector of…
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…
We introduce a generic estimator for the false discovery rate of any model selection procedure, in common statistical modeling settings including the Gaussian linear model, Gaussian graphical model, and model-X setting. We prove that our…